SB Nation brings you the top Daily Fantasy options each week through the regular season and into the playoffs. This week, we’re focusing on the Sunday slates on DraftKings and FanDuel, so you will not see players from Saturday’s two games in this list. As for who should be in your lineups, here are the top value plays of the week, with an eye toward low ownership and high upside.
Top daily fantasy football plays for Week 16 of the NFL season
With Week 16 of the NFL season upon us, we take a look at some of the best values to be found on DraftKings and FanDuel, and some players worth fading.
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Quarterback
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,800 DK, $8,300 FD)
The Buccaneers’ defense is powerless to stop a quarterback with Newton’s skills. It cannot rush the passer, and it allows a ton of rushing yardage to QBs. I actually think it’s to Newton’s benefit that the Panthers’ offense played so poorly against Tampa back in Week 8, because the odds of that happening twice against this swiss-cheese defense is seemingly astronomical. Newton has either rushed for more than 50 yards or scored a touchdown in every game since that first meeting.
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers ($6,500 DK, $7,600 FD)
We said Bortles had a dream matchup last week against Houston, and he proved us right with 28 DK points, even without Marqise Lee. Two weeks earlier, Bortles dropped another 28 on the Colts. Now, he gets the third jewel of the inept pass defense Triple Crown. How does 28 points sound this week?
Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets ($6,400 DK, $8,100 FD)
Yes, Rivers struggles in 1 p.m. ET east coast games. Yes, he doesn’t have Hunter Henry anymore. Yes, he looked like Bizarro Rivers in the second half last week in Kansas City. If all those reasons get people off Rivers this week, the better he is as a play. The Jets are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, mostly on the strength of 27 touchdown passes. The Chargers are still hanging on by a thread in the playoff hunt, so expect a bounceback here for the passing game.
Matt Stafford, Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals ($6,200 DK, $7,900 FD)
If the Bengals are going to roll over and die like they did last week in Minnesota, then Stafford is going to have a field day. The Bengals are facing injuries on defense, so Stafford, who appears over his hand injury, should be able to treat this game like target practice. As long as the Lions don’t vulture some running scores, it’s all Stafford, all the time here.
Discount Darling: Drew Stanton, Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants ($4,500 DK, $6,000 FD)
For what it’s worth, Stanton had 15-point outings in both of his starts this year, including one against the Seahawks when they still had their Legion of Boom intact. The Giants are the Legion of Gloom and Doom, allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks in the league. You don’t get starting quarterbacks with a can’t-miss matchup at $4,500 every week.
Avoid: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints ($6,300 DK, $7,700 FD)
Two weeks ago, in a home game against the Saints, Ryan couldn’t crack double-digit DK points. He has thrown three touchdown passes combined in the past four weeks. There are far too many better options right above and below him, salary-wise.
Also consider: Tom Brady, New England Patriots; Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints; Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys.
Running back
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks ($8,000 DK, $8,300 FD)
Hey, remember this guy? We’re hoping that maybe DFS players don’t. As we all know, it’s been six weeks since Elliott took the field, and he returns with a matchup that seems prohibitive on paper. But look at what Todd Gurley did last week, then consider how fresh and rested Elliott is, and you have the makings for a massive performance that puts the NFC on notice and DFS believers atop the standings.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,400 DK, $7,300 FD)
The Buccaneers are horrifically bad at stopping running backs who catch passes. What does McCaffrey do as well as any running back in the league? Catch passes. McCaffrey had the best game of his rookie season last week against the Packers – another team that struggles mightily with pass-catching backs. With a playoff spot on the line, there will be no let-up by the Panthers, which sets McCaffrey up for a high-volume day.
Dion Lewis, New England Patriots ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD)
Forget pass-catching backs, the Bills are just plain bad at stopping running backs, period. Lewis has been dominating the carries for weeks now, but he should see a spike in usage with Rex Burkhead sidelined. Lewis matched his season high with 15 carries against Buffalo three weeks ago, but oddly had no pass targets. That should change this time around.
Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals ($4,700 DK, $6,100 FD)
Now that Riddick is medically cleared to play, he is in an absolute smash spot against a decimated Bengals defense, especially at linebacker. Riddick had 10 carries and 10 targets when facing the Bucs two weeks ago and wound up with 27 DK points. If the Bengals roll over like they did last week in Minnesota, Riddick might end up with identical numbers, which makes his price drop this week from $5,200 all the more mouth-watering.
Discount Darling: Kapri Bibbs, Washington vs. Denver Broncos ($3,500 DK, $5,000 FD)
Bibbs gave Washington a huge boost last week as the third-down back after injuries to Chris Thompson and Bryon Marshall, and now he might end up as the lead back if Samaje Perine is forced to sit. Even if Perine plays, Bibbs put up 15 DK points in his limited role last week, so he’s a great value play who could end up the tournament-winning play if he gets three-down work.
Avoid: Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,000 DK, $6,800 FD)
The matchup is bad, but so is the trend since Jimmy Garoppolo became the starting quarterback. In the three games under Jimmy G, Hyde is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. It has led to two of his worst fantasy outputs of the season in that span. Facing the brutal Jags defense only exacerbates Hyde’s limitations this week.
Also consider: LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills; Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins; Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears.
Wide receiver
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants ($6,800 DK, $7,500 FD)
As mentioned with Stanton above, the Giants defense is just brutal across the board, but particularly against the quarterback position, which suggests Stanton will have time to locate the main man in this offense. In Stanton’s last start in Week 10 against Seattle, Fitzgerald caught 10 of 14 targets for 113 yards. That’s when Seattle was still Seattle. The Giants are no Seattle.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD)
Hill has been in double digits in fantasy points 10 times in 14 games, including the last six. He’s just two weeks removed from a 39-point game against the Jets. And yet, because of a perceived tough matchup against Miami, his price and expected ownership are down – he was $7,100 two weeks ago. Miami is going to have to sell out to stop Travis Kelce, which could lead to Hill getting behind the defense. All he needs is one or two big plays to pay off his discounted salary.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans ($6,400 DK, $6,600 FD)
Woods is also underpriced for his level of production. He didn’t look like he missed a beat in his return from a shoulder injury last week, and he draws another poor pass defense this week. The Rams are going to want to get the Goff-Woods connection running at peak efficiency for the playoffs, so his targets should remain steady, and Woods has been making the most of his volume all season.
Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys ($6,300 DK, $7,300 FD)
I can’t imagine that many people are going to be on Baldwin after the horror show against the Rams last week. That is probably a mistake, as the Dallas defense is a get-well unit for wide receivers, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wideouts in the league. This game has shootout potential with Elliott back, and the Seahawks will be looking to erase the memory of last week while fighting to keep playoff hopes alive. I’ll be shocked if Russell Wilson doesn’t get Baldwin involved heavily this week.
Discount Darling: Roger Lewis, Giants at Cardinals ($3,400 DK, $5,200 FD)
The big question here is going to be whether Patrick Peterson moves to the slot to cover Sterling Shepard. If he does, then Lewis suddenly becomes the No. 2 receiver that always has success against the Cardinals. At $3,400, Lewis would join Washington’s Bibbs as the salary saver du jour. It’s a risk, because it’s the late game and if Peterson shadows Lewis, then he’s toast. But at $3,400, it’s a risk worth taking, especially since the Giants will probably throw his way regardless with such limited options.
Avoid: Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,200 DK, $6,800 FD)
The Jags are hands down the toughest pass defense in the league, and with no complementary receiver for them to fear, expect the Jags to smother Goodwin all day. Maybe Goodwin finds the end zone, like DeAndre Hopkins did last week, but that’s not a bet worth making.
Also consider: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers; Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints; Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars.
Tight end
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins ($6,900 DK, $7,000 FD)
With the likes of Stanton, Bibbsm and Lewis presenting major salary savings, paying up for Kelce shouldn’t be an issue. Kelce is likely to see a reduced ownership compared to the likes of Rob Gronkowski (revenge game!) or even the super-saver Antonio Gates. But Kelce’s matchup is good as gold against the Dolphins, who have been killed by tight ends all season. This is the tournament play of the week.
Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals ($3,700 DK, $5,200 FD)
Ebron is finally the fantasy tight end we all envisioned at the beginning of the season. Better late than never. And if the Bengals are who we think they are (tanking), then Ebron should be able to exploit all the back-up linebackers who shouldn’t be any match to stop him.
Ricky Seals-Jones, Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants ($3,500 DK, $5,200 FD)
One more time with my man, the Sensation With Hyphenation. Lately, it’s been a lot of stagnation. But the Giants are the worst team in the league when it comes to defending tight ends. There is no history to draw upon with Stanton under center, but for a low-owned dart throw, we’re hoping the general Giants badness leads to fantasy goodness.
Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers ($3,300 DK, $5,100 FD)
Check his status, as he is dealing with a hip issue, but if Brate is active, he’s in the best spot he’s seen all season with both O.J. Howard and DeSean Jackson sidelined. Brate reached five targets last week for only the second time in his last seven games, but he would be in line for perhaps twice that with the receiving corps sop depleted
Discount Darling: Antonio Gates, Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets ($2,500 DK, $4,500 FD)
Hunter Henry is out for the season, and Gates shook off the mothballs last week and scored a touchdown. The Chargers should be able to move the ball and get red-zone opportunities against the Jets, and that puts Gates in prime position to vulture a touchdown or two, which makes him another sensational value play.
Avoid: Garrett Celek, San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,800 DK, $5,000 FD)
The 49ers’ offense has had a lot of fun in winning the past three games. But there’s nothing fun or productive about facing the Jaguars. Proceed with extreme caution.
Also consider: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots; Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers; Vernon Davis, Washington.
Defense
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets ($3,700 DK, $4,900 FD)
Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans ($3,600 DK, $4,600 FD)
Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns ($3,500 DK, $4,800 FD)
Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants ($3,000 DK, $4,600 FD)
Discount Darling: Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals ($2,900 DK, $4,600 FD)
Avoid: Washington vs. Denver Broncos ($3,400 DK, $4,700 FD)
