SB Nation will be bringing you the top Daily Fantasy options each week through the regular season and into the playoffs. Here are the top value plays of the week, with an eye toward low ownership and high upside.
Top daily fantasy football plays for Week 14 of the NFL season
With Week 14 of the NFL season upon us, we take a look at some of the best values to be found on Draftkings and FanDuel, and some players worth fading.
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Quarterback
Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders ($6,500 DK, $8,200 FD)
Philip Rivers is going to be the popular play after his four-week run of excellence combined with a plus matchup against Washington, but Smith is back on the upswing after torching the Jets last week. The Raiders are among the worst pass defenses in the league, and the Chiefs are in desperation mode at home. Smith is a solid pivot off Rivers in tournaments.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,200 DK, $7,700 FD)
Casual DFS players are going to see Jacksonville as the opponent and write Wilson off. That’s fine for the rest of us, as the Jaguars might be without Jalen Ramsey, and Wilson is, essentially, the entire Seattle offense at this point. Wilson’s salary is the lowest it’s been all season, down $900 from last week. That’s called bargain shopping right there.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans ($5,500 DK, $7,000 FD)
The numbers would tell you that Garoppolo struggled last week against the Bears in Chicago, but he actually played well against a tough pass defense on the road, leading an expert final drive for the win. Bill Belichick loved Jimmy G, and the 49ers are about to find out why. So, too, I suspect, will the depleted Texans defense. Garoppolo might be the top point-per-dollar play on the slate.
DeShone Kizer, Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers ($4,900 DK, $6,400 FD)
Don’t look now, but Kizer is starting to become fantasy relevant down the stretch. He topped 20 DK points in two of three games before last Sunday and had a respectable 15 points against the tough Chargers defense last week. Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman give Kizer two legit receiving weapons, and the Packers’ secondary is an absolute mess right now. If Kizer can just stop with the turnovers, he’s capable of a massive output in this one.
Discount Darling: Eli Manning, New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys ($4,800 DK, $6,000 FD)
Holy narratives, Batman! The proud, two-time Super Bowl champion retakes the field as the starter following the sacking of the coach and general manager who benched him. The emotion in this game is going to be off the charts, and the Cowboys defense, even with the return of Sean Lee, might not be capable of stopping this wave. A Manning-Sterling Shepard-Evan Engram stack is definitely in play here.
Avoid: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings ($6,200 DK, $7,700 FD)
The Vikings are going to take away Devin Funchess (Xavier Rhodes,) and they possess the best defense in the NFL against running quarterbacks. That’s too many weapons that Cam won’t have at his disposal to justify his salary.
Also consider: Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers; Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys; Blaine Gabbert, Arizona Cardinals
Running back
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts ($7,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
There are really only two possibilities here: Either a walking-wounded Tyrod Taylor starts, or Nathan “Five Picks” Peterman gets the call. In either scenario, it only makes sense that the Bills will try to rely heavily on Shady, who gets to face one of the worst defenses in the league against pass-catching backs. This could be check-down heaven for the full-point players on DraftKings.
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns ($5,900 DK, $6,600 FD)
With Ty Montgomery on IR, Williams will remain the lead back despite the presence of Aaron Jones, who vultured the game-winning touchdown in overtime last week – his only carry of the game. Williams has 21 carries in each of the last two games, and a similar workload is in the offing against a Browns defense that is softening lately against the run.
Lamar Miller, Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,800 DK, $6,600 FD)
Miller also gets to face a defense that’s atrocious at stopping running backs who catch passes, allowing the most yards in the league in that category. With the receiving corps again shorthanded, the Texans will rely on Miller a great deal, as they have the past few weeks.
Frank Gore, Colts at Bills ($3,900 DK, $5,500 FD)
The Bills have been downright dreadful at stopping the run since they traded Marcell Dareus. They are fourth worst in the league in yards rushing allowed and dead last with 18 rushing touchdowns, including 11 in the past five weeks. This is a great spot for Gore to enjoy a last hurrah, and a great salary saver to allow for some of the high-priced backs to make a roster.
Discount Darling: Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Chicago Bears ($3,100 DK, $5,100 FD)
He might be the chalkiest chalk that ever chalked, with ownership north of 50 percent, but at $3,100 for the amount of production he’s going to provide, he’s going to be near impossible to fade. You just can’t get 8K production at that price. Eat the chalk and thank yourself later.
Avoid: Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions ($4,500 DK, $5,500 FD)
Barber was looking like another solid value play until Doug Martin cleared the concussion protocol. Barber should still have a role, but it will be nothing like last week when he was named the starter right before kickoff and ran wild on the Packers. Sadly, the volume just won’t be there this time.
Also consider: Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams; Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs; Mike Davis, Seattle Seahawks.
Wide receiver
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers ($7,200 DK, $7,500 FD)
The Panthers have been routinely getting blown up by opposing wide receivers, and Thielen is probably going to have a depressed ownership level after a genuine stinker last week, coming off the heels of a somewhat underwhelming Thanksgiving Day performance. Third time’s the charm? That’s a bet DFS players should be willing to make.
Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs ($6,700 DK, $7,100 FD)
Just as Crabtree returns from a one-game suspension, Chiefs top cornerback Marcus Peters heads off with a one-game ban. Talk about timing. Add to that the strong likelihood that Amari Cooper either sits out with injury or plays on a limited basis. In a game with enormous playoff ramifications, expect Crabtree to come out angry and loaded with target share.
Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans ($5,100 DK, $5,700 FD)
Whenever a new quarterback takes over, it can take a while for pricing to catch up the actual roles the receivers take on after the adjustment period. The small sample size seems to indicate that Jimmy Garoppolo enjoys throwing the ball to Goodwin, who was targeted eight times last week in Chicago. Goodwin caught all eight, so there’s chemistry there right off the bat. Against a soft pass defense, Goodwin could be a smash candidate at just over 5K.
Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers ($4,100 DK, $5,700 FD)
Josh Gordon is going to be the super-chalk at wide receiver. But unlike Bernard, this chalk can be faded with confidence. With so much ownership going to Gordon, Coleman is going to go almost entirely overlooked against a defense that will struggle with all Browns pass catchers. This is a potential GPP-winning pivot play, as Kizer and Coleman already have a solid rapport, pre-Gordon.
Discount Darling: Chester Rogers, Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills ($3,000 DK, $5,100 FD)
This is my favorite play on the entire slate, and I’m praying the DFS community doesn’t get wise to the opportunity here. With Donte Moncrief ruled out, Rogers should see increased work as the opposite receiver from T.Y. Hilton. Rogers has 16 targets over his past three games and torched the Steelers, of all teams, three weeks ago for 25 DK points. The Colts want to see what they have with Rogers, and the Bills are in the top 10 for most catches allowed to wide receivers this season.
Avoid: Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals ($4,200 DK, $5,600 FD)
Patrick Peterson alert. Move along.
Also consider: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers; Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams.
Tight end
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals ($5,700 DK, $6,600 FD)
Did we mention that Davis is going to get the Peterson treatment? With RIshard Matthews active but coming off a hamstring injury, Marcus Mariota will likely lean on his trusty tight end who has six straight games in double-figure DK points. Walker is as unsexy as it gets, but he produces at low ownership, and that’s all you can ask for.
Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,000 DK, $,6090 FD)
Like Wilson, DFS owners are going to shy away from Graham because of the matchup, but Graham stands as the most prolific tight end inside the red zone and has scored at least one touchdown in four straight games and seven of his last eight. Wilson will run around in the backfield for five minutes, then hit Graham for a score. Bank on it.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, New York Jets at Denver Broncos ($3,600 DK, $5,900 FD)
If the refs actually get the call right, you can almost guarantee ASJ gets a touchdown this week against one of the worst defenses against the tight end position in the league. It’s been the Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse show for the Jets the past few weeks, but Aqib Talib and Chris Harris will likely flip that script this week, and Seferian-Jenkins should be the prime benefactor.
Ricky Seals-Jones, Cardinals vs. Titans ($3,400 DK, $4,500 FD)
Until Blaine Gabbert decides he actually doesn’t love showering Seals-Jones with targets, we’re going to keep listing him here. The Titans are very beatable through the air, and outside of Larry Fitzgerald, this is the pass catcher on the Cardinals worth investing in.
Discount Darling: Stephen Anderson, Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers ($3,200 DK, $4,500 FD)
Will Fuller is expected back, but C.J. Fiedorowicz and Bruce Ellington are on IR, and Braxton Miller has been ruled out. Anderson had a 5-79-1 line on 12 targets last time out, and he should see similar volume and production against the 49ers.
Avoid: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers ($4,800 DK, $6,000 FD)
The Panthers allow next to nothing to opposing tight ends, which makes Rudolph’s high salary a no-go.
Also consider: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs; Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys; David Njoku, Cleveland Browns.
Defense
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Washington ($3,600 DK, $5,100 FD)
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills ($3,500 DK, $4,100 FD)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Chicago Bears ($3,300 DK, $4,600 FD)
New York Jets at Denver Broncos ($3,300 DK, $4,500 FD)
Discount Darling: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers ($2,700 DK, $4,600 FD)
Avoid: Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers ($3,200 DK, $4,800 FD)
