Top daily fantasy football plays for Wild Card Weekend

SB Nation brings you the top Daily Fantasy options each week of the postseason through the conference championships. This week and next, we have only four games to work with, so choices are limited and low-owned values are harder to come by. Nevertheless, here are the top value plays of the week, with an eye toward low ownership and high upside. We provide pricing for both FanDuel and DraftKings.

There’s really only one quarterback who is likely to go off for a big game among the four this weekend, and he is listed directly below. Tyrod Taylor, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton face three of the top defenses in the league, which dramatically lowers their appeal.

The Jags are expected to rely heavily on the running of Leonard Fournette against a terrible Bills run defense. That leaves Goff and Drew Brees. In the past eight weeks, Goff has topped 23 DK points four times. Brees has topped 23 points just three times all season and had 14 and 20 points in two matchups with the Panthers. Advantage: Goff.

Smith is the top quarterback option on the board, especially given the Titans’ pass-funnel defense that struggles to contain tight ends. Smith was the top fantasy quarterback in 2017 among the eight playing this weekend, while the Titans were a bottom-10 defense in yards and touchdowns allowed to opposing quarterbacks. That Smith is fourth in quarterback salary on DK is fairly amazing.

Considering how much Derrick Henry struggled as a runner last week (28 carries, 51 yards), the Titans’ only legitimate chance to win this game is to put the ball in Mariota’s hands and let him throw (and run it himself). Mariota is averaging around 15-16 DK points per game the past three weeks, which is a fine number based on his salary, allowing owners to spend up at running back, where the big numbers lie this weekend.

The only bad option this weekend is Tyrod Taylor, but that’s also why Bortles is a big risk. The Jags are going to lean heavily on Fournette in a smash matchup against the Bills’ horrendous run defense and this game could get out of hand early, which could scale back Bortles’ volume in a big way. He can’t pile up points by handing off 30 times.

Gurley was seemingly overpriced at $9,100 two weeks ago, and if you didn’t spend up for him, you probably didn’t win anything, as Gurley made his price tag look like a bargain with 55.6 DK points. He had 48 points the week before, which would also pay off his current salary handsomely. The Rams will certainly make Gurley the focal point of their entire offensive game plan against a defense that allowed the most receptions to running backs this season. He is going to be tough to fade, even at his high price and ownership levels.

However…if you are going to fade Gurley — or if you go super-cheap at wide receiver and load up on two spendy backs — Fournette is the clear No. 2 back this weekend, taking on the worst run defense in the league. The Jags should be leaning heavily on their prized rookie on Sunday, to the tune of 30 total touches. And with the Jags likely to be playing from in front, expect Fournette to get close-out duty in the fourth quarter. More than any other player at any position — even Gurley — Fournette is a must-play.

DeMarco Murray has already been ruled out, so it’s all Henry, all the time. He delivered, points-wise, in the lead role last week, thanks mainly to a 66-yard touchdown reception. That was ironic, as Henry has not been an active pass catcher all season. The Titans need Henry, who had 28 carries last week, to come through on Saturday as they try to keep the Chiefs offense on the sidelines as much as possible. The volume makes him a fine option as the No. 2 back or flex.

There’s still no guarantee McCoy even plays on Sunday. But why take the chance on a hobbled back facing the best defense in the league when Fournette is $100 cheaper and has the best matchup of the weekend?

Thomas had two of his best games of the season against the Panthers, combining for a 12-157-2 line. As his output proves, the Panthers have been victimized by wide receivers all season, allowing the second-most catches and fourth-most yards. Thomas had at least eight targets in all but two games this season. He is going to be heavily involved this week.

The biggest knock on Hill this season was his odd home/road splits. For most of the season, Hill dominated away from Arrowhead but struggled in his home stadium. But in each of his final two home games, Hill registered 19.8 DK points. With the Titans funneling opposing offenses to throw the ball, Hill should get plenty of chances to showcase his speed.

Three of Matthews’ final four games came against the Jags, Rams, and Cardinals — a rough trio for any lead wideout. In three of four other games in his final seven, Matthews had DK points totals of 17, 25, and 21. This matchup is probably closer to the Jags-Rams-Cards end of the scale, but with the Titans likely in throw mode much of the game, Matthews has a chance to pop.

Funchess is dealing with a bad shoulder and though he scored a touchdown against the Saints in Week 13, this is one of the toughest matchups of the weekend, against Marshon Lattimore. It should be noted that Lattimore didn’t play in that Week 13 game.

Would you pay $7,100 for a can’t-miss wide receiver? On this slate, Kelce would be the third-highest priced receiver behind Thomas and Julio Jones. That’s a pretty fair setup for arguably the top receiving point-producer on the slate. There are simply no other targets at the tight end position who come remotely close to what Kelce is likely to produce.

He’s pretty boring, but there’s no denying that Walker produces. From Weeks 7-15, Walker scored double-digit fantasy points seven times out of eight. He is the top red-zone target against a defense that was middle-of-the-pack against the position.

This is nothing more than a salary-saving option, as the chances of Hooper getting double-digit fantasy points are pretty slim. He should see three to four targets and might make one to two catches, so he should at least produce a few points. But his cheap salary opens the door to two high-priced running backs, and that’s a pretty valuable function this weekend.

It’s not for a lack of trying. Olsen has been targeted 15 times the past two games. But he has only four receptions to show for it, including a terrible 1-for-9 effort in Week 17. The Saints are a brutal matchup for any tight end, let alone one who just doesn’t have it right now. Find the extra 2K and play Kelce.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills ($4,400 DK, $5,600 FD)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans ($3,400 DK, $4,800 FD)

Discount Darling: Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons ($2,700 DK, $4,700 FD)