Will the Royals repeat in 2015?

The Royals’ run to the World Series was a fantastic story, bringing joy to a fan base that hasn’t had much of it for almost 30 years. It revitalized them and restored their faith in a franchise that had become a joke. Dayton Moore’s “process” took a lot longer than he or anyone else anticipated, but it’s hard to argue with him when the team he put together came within two runs of winning the whole damn thing.

All series long, Fox’s announcers lauded the Royals for creating a new paradigm for success. For realizing they didn’t have to hit home runs to win, and for being true to themselves: Most of us are aware that that’s a load of bull. If the Royals had been capable of hitting more home runs, they would have wanted to. Implicit in this argument about the Royals’ paradigm of speed and defense is the assumption that they didn’t just get lucky. That sounds harsher than it’s supposed to, as fans have an aversion to accepting that luck had anything to do with it, but every playoff run needs luck. The Royals were a good baseball team -- let’s not take anything away from their fantastic run, or come off as trolling the day after their run ended at the left arm of Madison Bumgarner. However, it’s abundantly clear that they benefitted greatly from players getting hot at the right times, and from a pitching staff that almost never stumbled.

Did the Royals indeed establish a new way to win? Are they going to be back next year? Or are they a one-and-done phenomenon like the Indians were last year, albeit one that had a great deal more postseason success?

First, let’s acknowledge that while the Royals won 89 games, their run differential was that of an 84 win team. That’s not necessarily an indictment. Their bullpen proved to be absolutely otherworldly for most of the year, allowing them to hold leads. Indeed, all year, the Royals blew just eight leads in the seventh inning or later. That’s not just luck, that’s building a great bullpen, though no one could have anticipated how remarkable the trio of Wade Davis, Greg Holland, and Kelvin Herrera were. Nor should we expect them to be worth a combined nine wins above replacement again -- that’s Mike Trout territory right there, and from less than half the pen.

A great deal of Kansas City’s success was also centered on what has been a fantastic defense. They easily pass the eye test, as Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon, Jarrod Dyson, Salvador Perez, and Alcides Escobar are all elite defenders who make difficult plays look easy. They also excel when we look at the advanced defensive metrics we have available. The Royals finished second in the American League in Total Zone and Defensive Runs Saved, and first in Ultimate Zone Rating. However, we know that, in general, defense gets worse with time. Players lose range as they age. In fact, compared to their performance in 2013, the Royals were only half as good this year. Gordon is going to be 31 next year, Cain will be 29. Dyson will be 30 and Escobar 28. It’s likely that, as great as the Royals have been in the field this year, we will see a decline in 2015 similar to that from the club’s bullpen. They will get worse simply because it’s so difficult to even play at the same level again.

And finally, there’s the James Shields problem. Shields has been one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball by ERA+ since 2011. He strikes out more than his share of batters, walks relatively few, and has maintained his velocity and especially his durability for his entire career. Indeed, since his first full season in 2007, only Justin Verlander has started more games than Shields has (266 to 264), and he’s never been on the disabled list in the majors. Shields may not have been the Royals’ best starter each time out, but he was almost certainly their most valuable over the course of the last year. In five days, he will be a free agent.

To compete in 2015, the Royals need to figure out how to replace that production and those innings on the mound. Re-signing Shields is an option, but he, Max Scherzer, and Jon Lester will undoubtedly all be big ticket items this offseason. He would will likely take at least $18-20 million a year to retain. The Royals could play in the shallower end of the free agent pool, bringing back Ervin Santana or looking to Brandon McCarthy or Francisco Liriano, but these options offer far less reliability than “Even Keel” Shields (look, if other people get to just make up “Big Game James” out of whole cloth, I get to make up my own, more appropriate, nickname).

Signing Shields would also presumably have implications for the rest of the roster. The club’s estimated total payroll according to Baseball Reference is $72.4 million, assuming they decline their options on Billy Butler and Scott Downs. They will also have to pay out a significant raise in arbitration to Greg Holland. In addition to this massive hole in the starting rotation, they will have to find additional help in right field and at designated hitter. Despite their strong postseasons, the Royals would do well to explore upgrades over (or at least platoon partners for) Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer as well. Can they do that while keeping payroll reasonable? After all, with anticipated improvements to the Indians and Twins, and a strong Tigers team to contend with, will the Royals still be able to slip into the wild card with what is essentially an 84 win team? Probably not.

So then this becomes the most important question: Will David Glass authorize Dayton Moore to open up the club’s checkbook even more? They were 17^th in payroll in 2014, and that was already 13 percent higher than any other opening day payroll in the club’s history according to Cot’s Contracts. Plus, they added Scott Downs and Josh Willingham midseason. Sure, they will have access to additional resources next year as they reap the benefits of their postseason run, but enough to cover the huge leap forward they’ve already taken? It’s not easy to have confidence in them to consolidate and build on their success -- the cynic who has watched them in the years before 2014 says that, in real life, Cinderella only gets one chance to wear the glass slipper. Unless she signs someone who can hit some dingers for her, anyway.