Josh Tomlin, ultimate 5th starter, has a chance to pitch the Indians to a World Series championship

In the system of your favorite team, right now, there is a young pitcher with pretty stats. There’s a chance he was in Double-A this season, but it’s more likely he was in the Carolina or California League. His walks are low. Strikeouts are high. The ERA is gorgeous. He was an 11th- or 19th- or 32nd-round pick, so you hadn’t heard of him before this, but those stats ... love those stats. You’re curious, at the very least.

That’s when a prospect writer climbs through your bathroom window, yells, “CEILING OF A FIFTH STARTER” and scurries up the chimney. Don’t bother chasing them; they’re long gone. Can’t keep them out, can’t spray for them. The folks who pay close attention to the minor leagues always remind you of how hard baseball is, right when you’re having fun and getting used to the idea of a new prospect.

Most of the time, these prospect profiles are right. The pitchers with more command than stuff tend might do well in Class-A, but they often get stuck in a snare trap around Double-A. If not there, then Triple-A. And if they make it through to the promised land, they have to succeed against players like Mike Trout, David Ortiz, and Kris Bryant, to say nothing of all-or-nothing hitters like Khris Davis or Chris Davis, who make millions because of the kinds of location mistakes fifth starters can make.

Josh Tomlin is the sunfish egg with a chance to turn into a sunfish, then. He is, perhaps, the purest representation of the form. His career path checks all the fifth-starter boxes:

What Tomlin had more of than most players of his genre, though, were opportunities. He’s been with the Indians for parts of seven seasons now, finding his way back into the rotation again and again, whether because of trades or injury. He was a spot starter who had to pitch on three day’s rest in his second-ever major league start. He was a fifth starter out of spring training whose season ended early because of an elbow strain, and then he was a fifth starter whose season ended early because of Tommy John surgery.

When he healed, the Indians still had a spot for him.

When he was bounced from the rotation in 2014 because of ineffectiveness, the Indians still had a spot for him.

When he came back from shoulder surgery, the Indians still had a spot for him.

When he was bounced from the rotation again in 2016 after an awful August, the injuries piled up so quickly, that he was bounced right back into the rotation. Now he’s starting what could be a World Series clincher for the Indians’ first championship in 68 years.

This has gone on for Tomlin and the Indians for parts of seven seasons, taking him from a 25-year-old C+ prospect to a 31-year-old wily veteran with the same team. He hasn’t stuck around with the Indians for this long because he’s been indispensable to them, a reliable gear in the roster machinery that’s kept the team successful for years. He’s stuck around with them because they haven’t found anybody who could out-Tomlin the Josh Tomlin they already had.

Much has been made of the significant payroll disparity between the Cubs and Indians, and it’s absolutely legitimate and important. Consider this, though: With a larger payroll, the Indians might have moved on from Tomlin years ago. They would have spent those millions on someone like, I don’t know, Yovani Gallardo. Or Ervin Santana. Or Ricky Nolasco. Or to keep Ubaldo Jimenez. The jump from a small-market payroll to a mid-market payroll doesn’t come with a couple of Jon Lesters. It usually just means paying name-brand prices for the pitchers who give just the slightest bit more hope than Tomlin would have offered.

The Indians couldn’t do that, so they stuck with the Tomlin they had, not the one they might have always wanted. He was the right price, and he knew everyone’s name already, and there was just enough of a history of success to justify it all. His ceiling was “enviable fifth starter,” not “placeholder until the real fifth starter gets here,” but it’s a fine line between the two.

Also consider just how well he matches up with the Cubs, too. Before going on, we’ll need a disclaimer that no pitcher really matches up well with the Cubs, because their lineup was the best in the National League. But once you’ve established that most pitchers are hosed against them, Tomlin’s profile seems like an interesting match. The Cubs are a patient team, which isn’t always the best way to approach a hyper-command pitcher. They’ve beat up on Bartolo Colon and Mike Leake (three times) this year, but they also struggled against guys like Jerad Eickhoff, Ivan Nova, and Johnny Cueto, who hardly walk anyone.

Even in that subset of command masters, though, Tomlin stands alone. If he added an extra walk for every nine innings pitched in 2016, he still would have had one of the 10-lowest walk rates in baseball. As is, he had the best walk rate, and now he’s facing a patient team with a lot of pressure on them. Add in his plus curveball and the pitch-backwards philosophy against the Cubs that’s come from the extensive, focused advance scouting that the postseason allows, and you have a pitcher who might be in the right place at the right time for all the wrong reasons.

Tomlin is still the purest of fifth starters, and he’s still facing a strong team, so don’t take this the wrong way. He’s at a natural disadvantage. However, he’s peaking at just the right time, and he’s getting the chance to soar where fifth starters usually aren’t allowed.

This game, he says proudly, planting the flag in the mound, is for fifth starters everywhere. This is for all the prospects who’ve been kicked around, who hit a wall in Double-A, who were given that C or C+ grade and described as a “bottom-of-the-rotation guy.” This game is a reminder that sometimes those guys work out and stick around, and that sometimes your team will desperately need them at the most important times.

Also, Andrew Miller will be warm by the second inning, which takes some of the pressure off.

For now, though, Josh Tomlin is a lifelong Indian who will get the chance that CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee never got. He’s the most fifth starter of any of the fifth starters, but the difference is that he’s had the opportunity to stick with the same team over and over and over again. They can all be rewarded for it, just like none of us ever expected.