Nathan Eovaldi has made two postseason starts this October, managing a combined 13-1/3 innings with just three runs allowed in the process. It wasn’t a two-start stretch of luck, either: Eovaldi dominated the Yankees allowing just five baserunners and no runs over seven frames, and scattered the Astros’ attack of six hits and two walks enough to keep it from ever being a threat.
The Red Sox will start Rick Porcello over Nathan Eovaldi in Game 3, and here’s why
Nathan Eovaldi has been great in his postseason starts, but context matters.
Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
Nathan Eovaldi will not be starting Game 3 against the Dodgers, though, and might not get a start in the World Series at all. Instead, Rick Porcello will be the man for the Red Sox in Game 3, when the Fall Classic heads to Los Angeles for the first of up to three games there.
It might seem like a headscratcher at first, but there are reasons why switching to Porcello makes sense here. For one, Porcello’s most significant weakness is the long ball: Dodger Stadium has seen its share of dingers in 2018 thanks to the home team’s powerful lineup, but over the last three years, it’s still trending as neutral at worst for homers. If Porcello isn’t as susceptible to the most significant weakness in his game, then letting him have a go of things in Game 3 makes sense.
After all, it’s not like Porcello is a bad pitcher even with the homer problem. He was an above-average arm this year in terms of both ERA and innings, was average last year and threw over 200 frames, and won the Cy Young in 2016. While he’s certainly not a Cy Young candidate in 2018 or likely ever again, he’s still capable of being good: he’s not that far removed from holding the Yankees to one run over five innings in New York, even.
This by itself isn’t a convincing reason to use Porcello in Game 3, but when it’s combined with Eovaldi’s value in relief, well, then the Red Sox have themselves a justification and a plan. Eovaldi has appeared in relief three times this postseason, including in both World Series games so far, and he’s been just as dominant, if not more so, in that role: in a combined 3-1/3 innings of relief, Eovaldi has allowed one hit while striking out two and walking none.
Red Sox manager Alex Cora likes to have a starter on hand to deploy in the late innings of ballgames, and Eovaldi is the clear-cut favorite for that “rover” role right now. Cora has already said there’s a chance Eovaldi could start Game 4, but with the caveat that, should Game 3 be winnable for the Red Sox in the eighth, Eovaldi might get another inning of relief instead.
How can the Red Sox afford to do this, when Eovaldi has pitched so well as a starter this year and in October? Well, if they’re using Eovaldi in Game 3, it’s because they’re likely on their way to a 3-0 lead, one W away from becoming World Series champions. With that in mind, it becomes a lot easier to think that Drew Pomeranz can start Game 4 -- he’s back up to throwing 94 miles per hour, as he’s been working back into form all month while off the roster. If not Pomeranz, then Eduardo Rodriguez, who had a 114 ERA+ this season over 23 starts and four relief appearances.
Or, maybe the Red Sox let Chris Sale start Game 4, then go to Pomeranz and Rodriguez, in something of a bullpen game from three starters. There are options: enough options that the Sox can roll with Porcello in Game 3, and think of Eovaldi as both a dominating setup man and a postseason starter, depending on how Game 3 is looking in the eighth inning.
Hey, all of this starter-as-reliever stuff worked for the Astros in 2017, when Alex Cora was their bench coach. Why not try messing with the standard October bullpen again, and see if it gets him another ring?
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