NFL Picks Week 11: Previewing And Predicting Every Game

The Bears have won four straight games. The Chargers have lost four straight games. Not only is that tremendously convenient symmetry, but it should give us a clue about the expert picks for this NFL Week 11 matchup. My prediction: People will be choosing the Bears to win.

Indeed, Sports Illustrated’s Peter King believes just that will happen. His pick: Bears 33, Chargers 13.

So how will that strategy work against the Jaguars? Jacksonville’s defense isn’t great -- they’re 21st against the rush and 29th against the pass -- so the Browns should be able to move the ball on them.

The Jaguars are 5-4 and need a win to stay afloat in the competitive AFC South. They won’t get it against the Browns, who have been playing too well lately. Look for the Browns to come away with a win by a field goal.

The Chiefs will go into the game with one goal and that’s running the ball. There’s no question that’s what they want to do and they’ll do all they can to achieve that goal. KC’s passing game blew up last week for 469 yards and four touchdowns but that was in a blowout loss so don’t expect a repeat performance. Arizona’s defense has been pretty miserable, especially at stopping the run, so on paper this is a bad matchup for Arizona.

The Cardinals QB situation isn’t very pretty -- even if the receiver situation is -- and that’s caused their offense to rank in the bottom third of the league in all major categories. Outside of last week’s embarrassment to Denver, KC has been solid on defense ranking in the middle of the league.

The Bengals have a better record but their season is much more disappointing as they were expected to be better than their 2-7 record. They’ve now lost six in a row -- all by one score. The Bengals offense should be better than that but their rushing game has totaled just 126 yards the last two weeks combined. The Bills defense is probably the best cure for the Bengals offense as they rank 32nd against the run.

The Bengals are are six point favorites and I think that’s way too high. The Bills haven’t been in a game decided by more than three points since Oct. 10. They can’t close out games but they know how to keep it close. I think the Bills get their second victory in a row this week with a field goal victory over the Bengals.

Favre struggled last week in the Vikings loss and that’s probably not a good sign as he prepares to face the No. 1 defense in the NFL. The Packers have given up just seven points in their last two games and they face the 27th ranked Vikings offense. That’s not a good combination for Minnesota.

The Packers are three point road favorites and with the Vikings season going down the toilet, you can expect a Packers victory. Green Bay will roll by a touchdown or more.

The Cowboys are favored to win the game but, if it’s anything like the Lions previous losses, it will be close. Six of the Lions seven losses were within one score and four of them were by a field goal or less. The Lions offense can score points -- they pass more than anyone in the league -- but they’re not exactly balanced. That should help the Cowboys defensively focusing on one area of the Lions offense.

The Cowboys are heavy favorites and I think they’ll start to put a couple wins together now that Jason Garrett is in at head coach. He’ll provide a spark, as the Cowboys remember how to win, and beat the Lions by a touchdown.

Offensively, the Steelers still want to rush the ball and that won’t necessarily be easy against the Raiders run defense, which is better than its ranking. The Raiders are also second against the pass so they’re doing some things right defensively.

Ultimately I’m taking the Steelers but the Raiders are a team that you need to take seriously this year. The Steelers are 7.5 point favorites but, while I do think they’ll win, it’ll be in a closer game than that.

The Bears offense ranks 23rd in the league and they haven’t been especially great at running or passing the ball this year. The Dolphins defense is sixth against the pass so that will be a good matchup against Jay Cutler.

The Dolphins are favored to win this home game by one point but I’ll go with the Bears in this one. The Bears defense will slow the Dolphins running game and I don’t see Tyler Thigpen beating them.