NFL Playoff Scenarios: Steelers Clinch Playoff Berth Despite Loss, Jets Move Up

The Jets stopped the Steelers, 22-17, but the Steelers also clinched a playoff berth by clinching a strength of victory tiebreaker. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to AFC playoff scenarios.

The only other team to clinch a playoff berth in the AFC so far? The New England Patriots, who can all but clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win over the Packers tonight. The Patriots would move to 12-2 with that win, and would guarantee that they would have a better seed than the 10-4 Steelers and Ravens; the Patriots beat both teams this season, and would hold that head-to-head tiebreaker if all three teams finished 12-4.

But the Patriots still haven’t clinched the AFC East. And even if the Patriots win tonight, they can still lose that division to the Jets by collapsing against the Bills and Dolphins in Week 16 and Week 17 while the Jets win out. Both teams would be 12-4 in that scenario, but the Jets would have a better record against division opponents, and win the AFC East.

Meanwhile, the AFC North is now a tie on paper, but the Steelers can clinch the division by winning out. If the Steelers and Ravens finish tied at 12-4, the Steelers will win the AFC North because they will have a 5-1 record in the division.

If the Patriots and Steelers keep their division leads, the Ravens and Jets will likely still make it to the postseason. Neither team is a lock to make the postseason right now, but wins next week would clinch playoff berths for each team: with wins, neither team could finish worse than 11-5, and that record would put them clear of the rest of the AFC wild card contenders. The Ravens, by virtue of a Week 1 win over the Jets, would take the fifth seed in that scenario, while the Jets would be sixth.

Their first round playoff opponents are more up in the air. Indianapolis and Jacksonville could both finish tied at 10-6, and neither the head-to-head nor divisional record tiebreaker would separate the two teams. But the third tiebreaker, record against common opponents, would break the Colts’ way: Indianapolis would finish 6-4 against common opponents, while the Jaguars would finish 5-5.

And in the AFC West, the Chiefs still have a lead, but it’s slim. If the Chiefs win out, they’ll win the division at 11-5, but they cannot clinch until Week 17 without a Chargers loss. And if the Chiefs lose one game and the Chargers win out, San Diego will head to the postseason: the Chargers would win the divisional record tiebreaker over the Chiefs if the Chiefs lose to the Raiders, and would win the record against common opponents tiebreaker if the Chiefs lose to the Titans.

And beyond the eight teams mentioned here — the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chiefs, Ravens, Jets, Jaguars, and Chargers — no other AFC team is even close to likely to make the playoffs. Both the Raiders and Titans could sneak in by winning their respective divisions, but each scenario requires a ton of help from division foes.