Unsurprisingly, losing seemingly half of your roster to injury isn't a good way to improve your playoff chances. Football Outsiders released its updated playoff odds this week after one quarter of the season, and the Dallas Cowboys saw their likelihood of playing in January drop by more than 14 percent. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who are currently playing without franchise quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, have seen their odds decrease by 21 percent.
2015 NFL playoff odds: Cowboys’ hopes fading fast
But yet, Football Outsiders still says they have the second-best chance of capturing the division.
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
In order to project a team’s record the rest of the way, Football Outsiders considers the current DAVE ratings of every team along with home-field advantage. DAVE is a formula that combines Football Outsiders’ preseason projections with their Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) in order to predict how a club will fare in its remaining games. Two different DAVE ratings are used to account for Tony Romo’s and Ben Roethlisberger’s absences, but the numbers still say the Cowboys and Steelers have seen their playoff odds take a dramatic hit.
The Giants are now favored to win the NFC East after riding a two-game winning streak, and are significantly ahead of the competition. Oddly enough, Washington still has the worst chance of capturing the division despite also sitting with a 2-2 record.
Without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are still narrowly ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North. Baltimore edged the Steelers in Week 4 after Josh Scobee missed two late field goal attempts.
But perhaps the biggest surprise is the Arizona Cardinals' strong standing, as they're still on top of the NFC West. Football Outsiders projects their mean win total to be 10.6 the rest of the way, which is more than a win better than the Seattle Seahawks, who have only seen their odds increase by 4.2 percent despite winning their last two games.
Another NFC West team, the St. Louis Rams, have seen their playoff odds increase by 19.8 percent, which is more than any other team in the league. But yet, they still find themselves third in the division.
Six teams have a mean win total of 11 games or more for the rest of the season –– the New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos. The Indianapolis Colts have the lowest mean win total among all expected division winners at eight.
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