Can good NFL teams overcome bad quarterbacks?

Stephen White: We haven’t talked much about the St. Louis Rams lately, but I will say that they look like a much improved team now that Todd Gurley is starting for them at running back. Check this out, the last three weeks, in order, Gurley has rushed for:

Oct. 4 vs. Arizona: 19 carries, 146 yards.
Oct. 11 vs. Green Bay: 30 carries, 159 yards.
Oct. 25 vs. Cleveland: 19 carries, 128 yards, 2 touchdowns.

That is pretty frigging amazing, I would say. Gurley missed the first two games of the season, barely played the third, has already had a bye week and is still 12th in the league in rushing. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the Rams are 2-1 over those last three games either.

St. Louis started the season 1-2 but have now pulled back to 3-3 largely behind Gurley’s big rushing outputs, so what are we to make of these Rams now? They are actually above the Seahawks now at second place in the NFC West and only have one more loss than the division-leading Cardinals. Can the Rams actually make a playoff push this year with the way the defense is getting after it now that Gurley is the focal point of their offense? Man, that thought has to kind of make Seattle nervous all things considered, right?

Danny Kelly: Yeah, the Rams are an enigma to me, and have been for a few years now. Every year they look like they’re going to be awesome, then every year, they aren’t. There’s no doubt in my mind that they have the talent to be really good -- Aaron Donald looks like J.J. Watt-lite, the rest of the defense has been flying around, Tavon Austin is emerging and Todd Gurley looks like a budding superstar. So, while there are times where they do live up to their potential, grabbing wins against very good teams or giving them a run for their money, they’ll follow those up with performances where they look rudderless in losing to bad teams.

I think with a solid run game and a really stout defense, which they have, they can certainly be contenders for the NFC West this year, but a lot of where they go might depend on what Nick Foles can do. I am not going to argue for quarterback wins as a stat, but I do think that it’s the most important position in football and is highly influential to how much success a team has, obviously. Can Foles take the Rams to that proverbial “next level” and push them beyond a team that hovers at .500? I don’t know. Right now they’re .500, and Foles’ splits in those wins and losses are pretty stark.

WINS

Sept. 13 vs. Seattle: 18 of 27, 297 yards, 1 TD 0 INT
Oct. 4 at Arizona: 16 of 24, 171 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
Oct. 25 vs. Cleveland: 15 of 23, 163 yards, 0 TD 0 INT
All wins: 49 of 74 (66%), 631 yards (8.5 YPA) 4 TD, 0 INT

LOSSES

Sept. 20 at Washington: 17 of 32, 150 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
Sept. 27 vs. Pittsburgh: 19 of 28, 197 yards, 0 TD 1 INT
Oct. 11 at. Green Bay: 11 of 30, 141 yards, 1 TD 4 INT
All losses: 47 of 90 (52%), 488 yards (5.4 YPA), 2 TD, 5 INT

So, as you can see, Foles, in all of the Rams’ three wins, has been solid (if not really good). In their losses, he’s been horrible. Like, 52-percent completion rate at 5.4 YPA is what you might expect from a third-stringer.

Now, there have been those outlier teams that rode their excellent run games and strong defenses and had success even with middling quarterback play, but generally you’re talking about elite groups in either of those two categories. Is the Rams’ defense elite? Is their run game dominant? I think the sample size is too small to know that right now, but DVOA has St. Louis’ defense ranked fifth in the NFL (OK, damn near elite) and their run game ranked 18th (overall offense 30th). Gurley does give them a pretty good shot and moving up the rankings for that.

So, here’s how I see it going for the Rams: If Nick Foles continues playing the way he’s played (wildly inconsistent) the Rams will have to be excellent in both of those other two key areas. Based on how they’re playing right now, they have a shot at the playoffs or better, but it’s a very small margin for error if they keep getting crappy play from Foles. If -- and this is a big if -- IF Nick Foles gets his shit together and starts playing the way he’s played in wins, consistently, watch out for this Rams team. They will be real dark horses for the postseason. The Seahawks and Cardinals should be a little bit nervous about that.

Speaking of the Seahawks, they face off against the Matt Cassel-led Cowboys this week, and after he threw three picks in his first start, it begs the question: Is Cassel any better of an option than Brandon Weeden was? What do you think of the switch to Cassel?

Stephen: As you recall I didn’t have high hopes for Matt Cassel heading into that game last weekend and so I would say he kind of lived down to my expectations so to speak. The three interceptions were just too much, but I did think he pushed the ball down the field a little more than what Weeden had while he was in there. This week the Cowboys just might get Dez Bryant back, which should be a huge boost for the offense overall and definitely for Cassel in particular. To me the next two weeks are going to be crucial because I think Dallas at least needs to split games between the Seahawks and Eagles if not sweep them both to stay in the NFC East race. The problem is both of those teams will also be desperate because they, too, are already basically fighting for their playoff lives every week just like the Cowboys.

If by some miracle they can win both games, then the Cowboys get a very beatable Bucs team in Week 10 and maybe Romo back for an also beatable Miami in Week 11, or the probable NFC South division winning Panthers in Week 12. But if they lose to both the Panthers and the Eagles, I’m not sure it will matter much if Romo comes back at all this season. While I would like to think that Cassel could get it together to at least help the Cowboys win one of those games, I just have a hard time seeing it after watching him against the Giants last Sunday. And that’s not even to say that he won’t play better or even decent. I just don’t think a “good” game from Matt Cassel will be enough for the Cowboys to beat Seattle or Philly. I suspect the Cowboys winning those games would require more than Cassel can give except on his very best days. Maybe not even then.

I do acknowledge that I can be a little rough on the Cowboys, however, since that was the team I rooted for growing up. So what say you, Danny? Did you see anything differently from Cassel on Sunday and do you believe that he could play well enough to win one or both of these next two games?

Danny: Well, I will say that I think Matt Cassel brings a more dynamic ability to the table than Brandon Weeden did. I think with Weeden, his inability to push the ball down the field really limited the Cowboys offense and even hurt their run game as well, so on one hand I think Cassel is an upgrade. He’s willing and able to take shots downfield and with Dez Bryant probably coming back on Sunday, he’ll have an elite target to throw to down there. That said, obviously, the turnovers thing is just so killer. His three picks were brutal and really killed the Cowboys in that game, and while Weeden doesn’t give you much in the downfield game, he also wasn’t turning it over. So, I’m torn as to whether or not he’s “an upgrade.” Bottom line is that Dallas has to get better quarterback play and it looks like Cassel’s still the man that will need to step up. I think he draws a really tough challenge this week against the Seahawks, who are getting much healthier on defense and looked like they are figuring out some of their communication issues on the back end.

I don’t envy Cassel in this game, honestly. The Seahawks have Richard Sherman so they can shadow Dez if they want, and with Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor patrolling in the secondary, he might think twice about throwing the ball deep. So, in the end, I agree with you that for the Cowboys to win either this week or next, it’s going to take an outstanding performance from Cassel and I just don’t know if he’s got it in him. I’m definitely leaning toward “no” this week, and then that would set up quite a division showdown with the Eagles next week.