Sam Bradford was fine in his first regular season start in nearly two years. He was arguably excellent if we give him some leeway for the time he missed -- 336 passing yards was actually his third-best total in 50 career games.
Cowboys vs. Eagles 2015 preview: Sam Bradford can determine the fate of the NFC East
Sam Bradford is at a potential turning point in his career. Whether Chip Kelly can revive him could shape the NFC East for years to come.
But taken at face value, the performance wasn’t anything we haven’t seen from Bradford before. He was safe with variable accuracy. He threw just one touchdown pass and had two interceptions, one potentially the fault of his intended target but the other squarely on him. Bradford’s 77.1 passer rating was just a couple ticks short of his 79.3 career average.
Eagles head coach Chip Kelly showed a surprising amount of faith in Bradford by trading Nick Foles for him -- Foles at least had one excellent season under his belt, and wasn't coming off back-to-back ACL injuries. At 27 years old, Bradford has plenty of youth left, too. Kelly made a bet that the former No. 1 overall pick could still become the franchise quarterback he was supposed to be.
Bradford has only shown that capacity in spots, which begs the question.
Is Sam Bradford done getting better?
Kelly's response last March was "no," which he seemingly reiterated when he denied trying to trade Bradford to move up to take Marcus Mariota with the Titans' No. 2 overall pick. Even if Kelly did try to use Bradford as a trade chip, he at least had to be somewhat comfortable with the idea of going into 2015 with the veteran as his quarterback.
Unfortunately for Bradford the real answer may be “probably,” at least if precedent is any indication. The list of players who had a 79.3 rating or worse in their first five-ish seasons and 50-ish games doesn’t reveal too many late bloomers. There are a *few* positive examples that suggest that Bradford can be a strong quarterback, however.
*Included only full seasons when considering a player's "best" season (or something close, McNair played 14 games in his). Bradford had a 90.9 passer rating in 2013, but played just seven games. He played 16 games when he posted an 82.6 rating in 2012. Smith had a 104.1 passer rating through nine games in 2012 before being benched for Colin Kaepernick. He posted a 93.4 rating in 16 games this past season for the Chiefs.
Alex Smith appears to be the high end of Bradford's potential improvement, and Steve McNair the low. Either way, it suggests that Bradford can be good enough in time to be the starting quarterback for a contender. Smith led the 49ers to a 6-2-1 start before they went to the Super Bowl in 2013 (and then was benched, but not for poor play, mind you). McNair brought the Titans all the way to the Super Bowl in 2000, where they lost to the Rams. Donovan McNabb went to four NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl with the Eagles. Eli Manning has two rings.
Stylistically, Bradford may be most akin to Smith or late-Eagles period McNabb, someone who uses his reasonable mobility to move in the pocket, find open receivers in shorts areas and, ideally, makes smart decisions more often than not. It should be a winning formula in Kelly’s system.
What if Bradford is great?
The Smith comparison is especially apt because both players had to deal with a litany of serious injuries early in their careers. If Bradford took a similar leap over rest of his career and played 21 points higher than his current passer rating -- a 100 passer rating -- he'd become one of the league's best quarterbacks today, if not of all time. Only Aaron Rodgers (110.6) and Peyton Manning (102.5) have posted cumulative passer ratings better than 100 after their fifth seasons in the NFL. Tom Brady (99.5), Tony Romo (99.0) and Drew Brees (98.7) are close behind.
It’s absurd to think or expect Bradford to get to that level, granted, but even modest improvement would make Bradford one of the better veteran quarterbacks in the NFL. And if he gets there, the Eagles could be in fine shape to win the NFC East for years to come.
The sad truth for Giants and Cowboys fans is that their quarterbacks are getting old. Manning is 34 years old and struggling more with consistency than he did in his younger days. Romo is playing as well as he ever has, but he's 35. Bradford may be able to compete with them now, and at the very least he will outlast them if his knees stay strong. Washington certainly doesn't appear to be solving its quarterback problems any time soon. In a quarterback-dependent league, the Eagles may be in the best long-term position to annually win the NFC East.
This Sunday’s game between the Eagles and the Cowboys is monumentally important because every game in that division always is. But it’ll be fascinating on a symbolic level, as well. If Kelly’s faith in Bradford pays off, the Eagles could be one of the strongest teams in the NFL for years to come. How soon it pays off could be legacy-defining for both the coach and the quarterback.
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