Dolphins can prove they’re for real with a tougher schedule in 2017

It was a banner year in 2016 for the Miami Dolphins. They won 10 games and qualified for the playoffs for first time since 2008. They boasted a 1,200-yard rusher — Jay Ajayi — for the first time since 2003. Ryan Tannehill’s 8-5 record as a starter made him the franchise’s first full-time quarterback to finish the year with a winning record since Chad Pennington.

But there were several accomplishments missing from Miami’s big season. The Dolphins continued an 8-21 skid against the Patriots, losing both their games against New England by a combined 28 points. Their postseason run featured fewer than three minutes in which they weren’t losing. Most glaringly, only one of the team’s wins came against an opponent with a winning record.

When the team won, it wasn’t exactly convincing, either. The Dolphins needed overtime to defeat the one-win Browns. Two wins over the 7-9 Bills came by a combined six points. Victories over the Jets, Rams, 49ers, and Chargers were all by seven points or fewer.

Miami won’t enjoy the same kind of soft scheduling that lined up seven games against teams that finished 2016 with six wins or fewer. The Dolphins feasted on the NFL’s dregs, padding their record against teams destined for high picks in the 2017 NFL Draft and little else. Even their marquee win came with a caveat: it was against the Steelers in a game where Ben Roethlisberger suffered a knee injury that would require surgery. Pittsburgh earned its revenge in the playoffs by starching Miami in a 30-12 bloodletting.

The season-ending injury that curtailed Tannehill’s big year played a role in that disappointing finish, but the writing may already have been on the wall. In the six games the team played against opponents with non-losing records, its average outcome was a 10-point loss.

That means this year’s Dolphins need to make significant improvements just to match last fall’s 10-6 record. Here’s how their 2017 schedule compares to the 2016 version.

New head coach Adam Gase impressed critics not only with his first-year playoff appearance, but by embracing the adversity his team faced throughout 2016. But this year’s more competitive schedule suggests an 8-8 record from a team that plays on last year’s level — a record more in line with the post-Dan Marino Dolphins to which the NFL landscape has adjusted.

In order to make the leap that allows Miami to stay at 10-6, it will need significant improvements on both sides of the ball.

A Week 14 ACL/MCL sprain kept Tannehill from what almost certainly would have been his first Pro Bowl invitation. With three dynamic receiving talents stretching the field — Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, and Kenny Stills — the young veteran recorded the highest completion rate of his career, a 67.1 percent mark ranked sixth among qualified starters last season. Nearly five percent of his passes ended in touchdowns, another career high.

A big part of Tannehill’s uptick was due to his supporting cast. The Landry-Parker-Stills combination was a boon, but no one may have been as helpful as tailback Ajayi. With the burly back gashing opponents and moving the chains, Tannehill was forced to throw the ball less and against defenses more likely to keep linebackers on the field instead of relying on defensive back-heavy sets. As a result, the Texas A&M product’s passing yards per game dropped by more than 30 yards to 230 per game, but his yards per pass attempt rose to a career-high 7.7.

However, Tannehill wasn’t bulletproof. Despite throwing fewer pass attempts per game than any other season in his career, he still threw a dozen interceptions in 13 games, leading to a career-worst interception rate. He threw picks at a rate higher than Blake Bortles or Landry Jones and equal to Brock Osweiler — not the company a franchise wants from a quarterback it’s slated to pay $77 million over the next four years.

A steadily gelling offensive line helped keep him upright in the pocket, dropping his sack rate from 9 percent in 2013 to 6.9 in 2016. While that mark still ranked 27th in the league, it was another improvement on a continuing trend for the Dolphins.

The Dolphins have committed more resources to the line in 2017. Miami is hoping two recent first-round picks could be the foundation for the future, including uber-talented tackle Laremy Tunsil. It also signed useful interior piece Ted Larsen away from the Bears, re-signed Jermon Bushrod, and took a fifth-round flier on high-potential workout wonder Isaac Asiata. Combine that with the return of Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey, who missed all but five games last season, and all signs point to better blocking this year — even if Pro Football Focus isn’t as optimistic.

That’s big news for Tannehill and Ajayi, who was equal parts explosive and inconsistent in his breakthrough 2016.

Last season, Ajayi had three games in which he gained 200 or more rushing yards. That’s good! He also had eight games in which he gained 51 yards or fewer. That’s bad!

The hard-charging rusher tallied 420 yards in two games against the Bills and 885 in 14 other games. Much of his inconsistent 2016 had to do with how Miami utilized him. His yards-per-game output dropped against winning teams as the Dolphins were forced to throw the ball more as they played from behind. He earned more carries against less successful clubs — nearly 4.5 per game -- but his per-touch performance remained essentially the same regardless of opponent.

Ajayi proved himself an asset in 2016, and his third year as a pro should be even better. His disheartening end to the season can be at least partially explained by the shoulder injury that hindered his performance. Two of his weakest performances — against the Cardinals and Jets -- came against top-five rushing defenses in terms of yards per carry. In 2017, he’ll face only two teams that ranked in the top nine — and one is the Jets, who are in the midst of a major rebuild after jettisoning most of their veterans this offseason.

Tannehill and Ajayi could continue their ascension in 2017 but still miss the playoffs if new coordinator Matt Burke can’t wring more from his defense. In the past five seasons, Miami has ranked in the top 20 in yards allowed just once, coming in 12th in 2014’s 8-8 campaign. Those mediocre returns didn’t stop the last guy to hold Burke’s job, Vance Joseph, from earning a promotion to Broncos’ head coach this offseason.

That move was even more curious when you look at the team’s performance last season. The Dolphins faced a slate of cupcake opponents, yet their yards allowed rank dropped from 25th to 29th in 2016.

The Dolphins got strong contributions from big-ticket veterans like Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh in 2016, but that pair will be a combined 67 years old by the end of the upcoming season. At their peaks, they alone would be enough to push the Miami defense to above average. However, each is reaching the unhappy side of the bell curve of their careers. That will put pressure on third-year tackle Jordan Phillips and 2017 first-round pick Charles Harris to replicate the kind of inside-out pressure at which Wake and Suh excelled.

The defensive line isn’t the only unit facing concerns. Byron Maxwell’s trick-or-treat defense and Tony Lippett’s ongoing conversion from 1,000-yard Big Ten receiver to starting cornerback leave significant questions in the secondary.

Instead, Miami has to hope former Pro Bowler Reshad Jones and 2016 second-round pick Xavien Howard can rebound from injury-riddled seasons to assume leadership roles for a pass defense that has to face quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Derek Carr, and Tom Brady (twice!). Cordrea Tankersley, a third-round pick this spring with first-round talent, could be another major contributor this fall. New signee T.J. McDonald is suspended for the first eight games of the season, but he’ll be back in time for a playoff push.

The linebacking corps, led by a newly extended Kiko Alonso, also has work to do. Koa Misi hasn’t played a full season since his rookie year in 2010 and has yet to be cleared after undergoing spinal fusion surgery. Former Steeler Lawrence Timmons was the team’s biggest free agent acquisition for 2017, but he’s also 31 years old.

Former undrafted free agent Neville Hewitt could blossom into a full-time starter in his third season, but has yet to prove himself as a reliable stopper. Rookie Raekwon McMillan was immensely productive at Ohio State, but concerns about his ability to translate that game to the pros dropped him to the second round this April.

Expect regression for the Dolphins in 2017. Their schedule will be significantly more difficult this fall, and last season’s 1-5 record against opponents with .500 records or better doesn’t bode well for a repeat 10-6 performance. Miami could be every bit as good as it way in 2016 and finish with three fewer wins than the year previous.

That’s not a viable strategy in a division where the champion has won 12 games or more each of the previous seven seasons. As long as Brady and Bill Belichick are still around, the Dolphins have to either make a major leap or find a way to battle for a wild card spot every December.

The team has the personnel in place to fight that, but they’ll need big-time development from Tannehill, Ajayi, and a slew of developing defensive pieces. Miami’s defense is stuck between aging and rebuilding; it needs its young players to show off Pro Bowl-caliber talent while hoping its veterans can retain it. That’s a tough balance to strike — but the franchise’s hopes of its first back-to-back playoff berths since 2001 depend on it.