4 expert predictions before the start of 2019 NFL free agency

The season might be over, but that doesn’t mean we don’t discuss the NFL. There’s a ridiculous amount of NFL offseason storylines to follow, and I want to share my thoughts on all of them.

Let’s start with player movement now that we’ve had our first trade of the 2019 offseason.

The first trade of 2019 was a shocker. Joe Flacco was traded to the Denver Broncos for a mid-round pick. Remember, this is a Broncos team that just shelled out money to Case Keenum. Keenum is guaranteed $7 million in 2019 in the final year of his two-year, $36 million contract. If the Broncos can’t move him, which will be tough at that salary, they have to eat that money. No bueno.

The Broncos’ plan is clear. They are building a team that’s going to resemble the 2015 Super Bowl winners: defense, rushing the ball, and timely passing.

As I covered last week, you need offense to get into the dance. Trading for Flacco is not enough offense to win. This move makes no sense. However, I do expect the Broncos to still take a quarterback high in the draft to eventually be the top dog when Flacco is finished.

The Steelers have two big decisions to make this offseason. Let’s start with Antonio Brown, an elite weapon who’s a five-time All-Pro. Since 2013, he has averaged 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns per season while battling through double-teams.

Brown said goodbye to Steelers fans on social media recently even though he’s still on the roster. He clearly wants a trade out of Pittsburgh, but I’m not sure the Steelers are going to listen to his pleas. The Steelers are an old-school organization that doesn’t get manipulated by these sorts of demands, e.g. Le’Veon Bell. If they believe Brown can help their team, which of course he can, then I think they will attempt to patch things up.

However, principles be damned if someone offers a first-round pick in the package for Brown. I’m skeptical teams will trade high-value picks for a 30-year-old receiver with a monster contract and history of diva behavior. If that’s the case, the Steelers have to move Brown. They’d clear his combined $38 million off their cap in 2020 and 2021 (but would still have to take a $21 million hit in 2019) and get rid of a headache with an eyes toward the future in draft picks.

So who makes the trade for Brown? The Raiders. Duh. This just feels like a Raiders’ play. They can make a splash move in the middle of bad press — they still don’t have a place to play next season — and also get fans excited for the move to Vegas. The offshores list the 49ers as the favorites, for whatever it’s worth.

But the Raiders have the ammo with draft picks, and they need weapons so badly to help Derek Carr or whoever is playing quarterback. From just a football angle, Brown would do fantastic in a West Coast offense. They’d find ways to get him in space without double-teams and can use his ability to fly.

If you want an outside-the-box location, look at the Super Bowl champions. The Patriots have multiple picks within the first 100 slots and they could use Brown. The culture in New England should be a good fit for Brown, too. I wouldn’t rule that out, even if the Steelers have claimed he wouldn’t be traded to New England.

While the Steelers are figuring out how to handle the Brown situation, they have another player dispute to tackle as well. Bell wants out. He should get his wish.

Bell received the franchise tag last season and chose to sit out the season to preserve his body for 2019. There are reports the Steelers might be petty and use the transition tag to gain some trade leverage for Bell. I hope they don’t do it and just let him walk.

So where does Bell end up?

There are teams with cap room that could use a dynamic playmaker like Bell, including the Jets, Colts, and Texans. However, as was the holdup in Pittsburgh, Bell wants to get paid. Super duper paid. Bell wants to be paid as a hybrid player — a runner and a pass catcher.

Well, no team should pay him as such. I’m probably on the more extreme side here, but I don’t think there’s much point paying a running back big bucks. They don’t prove to be that valuable to winning when you can draft a back in a later round or even, as Phillip Lindsay showed us, as an undrafted free agent. But teams have money and they need to spend it, so Bell will get a deal at a rate just above Todd Gurley.

I think those teams I mentioned above are most likely the options for Bell, with the Jets being the favorite. The Jets badly need some offensive weapons for Sam Darnold, and they have the money to overpay for Bell. The 49ers and Bell would be a perfect match scheme-wise if the 49ers wanted to add Bell. His market will be hot.

Nick Foles is out as an Eagle. I don’t think we will ever appreciate what Foles did over the last two seasons. Foles is a backup quarterback who won Super Bowl MVP honors. His Eagles won all three of their elimination games in 2017. Then last season the Eagles won their final three regular season games, all must-wins. They went into Chicago as the sixth seed and beat the Bears in the playoffs. So Foles was 7-0 in elimination games over two seasons before losing to the Saints in the Divisional Round.

But, with Carson Wentz back healthy to start 2019, it’s time to move on from Foles. The Eagles could franchise-tag Foles in an effort to gain some capital back for him. I expect teams to offer no better than one second-round pick in this draft for Foles, with maybe a late-round pick thrown into the trade to sweeten the deal.

The logical place for Foles to end up is Jacksonville. Blake Bortles is finished and with the Jaguars’ defense, they just need average from any quarterback to have success. If the Dolphins choose to move on from Ryan Tannehill, that seems like a decent team for him.

There just aren’t a ton of landing spots. Most teams have franchise quarterbacks or have young quarterbacks on their roster, so Foles will have slim pickings.

Lastly, Philadelphia was a perfect storm for Foles: outstanding coaching, an offense tailored to his strong suits, a great offensive line, and above-average weapons to target. I just don’t see him duplicating success elsewhere.