5 early surprises in the NFL season that we think are flukes

It’s Week 2 in the NFL, which means it’s time for everybody to panic and shotgun-blast definitive predictions based on what they saw in the season openers. Right now, all opinions for the 2019 season are premature (including ours!), but we’re still going to decide which early outcomes are the exception rather than the rule.

Was it a fluke that the Browns came out and looked like ... the Browns? Is Baker Mayfield going to struggle in his second season, or will he pick things up next game? Is Dalvin Cook a superstar now, or were the Falcons just Falconing? Was Case Keenum actually being remote controlled by some better quarterback, or is he actually somehow good now?

These are just some of the many questions we have after the first week and change of the new season. Some, we might even have potential answers for. Here are five things that have happened so far that we think are flukes.

Why it’s a fluke: In our season predictions, I listed Bradley Chubb as the guy who would win Defensive Player of the Year. It still kind of blows my mind that the rest of the NFL allowed Von Miller and Chubb to wind up on the same team. I feel like Chubb is right on the cusp of breaking out and dominating the NFL.

And I’m not too concerned with how things played out in Week 1, which was ... poorly. The Broncos lost, while allowing the Raiders’ offense to operate without Derek Carr being sacked — or hit — a single time. The Broncos didn’t get to Carr once, and neither Chubb nor Miller was credited with a tackle for loss.

This is absolutely the last team in the NFL I’d expect to say that about, and it’s because of that expectation (or lack thereof) that I’m calling this one a fluke. The Raiders have definitely worked on improving their offensive line, and Carr got his throws out quickly. But Chubb, Miller, and the rest of the Broncos’ defensive front — not to mention Vic Fangio’s defensive mind — are too good for that to last as the season progresses. — James Brady

Why it’s a fluke: Matt Ryan is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he didn’t play like it against the Vikings. In his underrated 2018 season, he threw for 4,924 yards, 35 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions. In his first game of 2018, he was picked off twice, including his first pass of the game.

The Falcons’ offense struggled to move the ball until they were down 28-0 late, finally scoring with 9 minutes left and then again with just over a minute remaining to lose 28-12. Devonta Freeman finished with just 19 yards on eight carries and lost a fumble. Julio Jones caught a touchdown pass, but he only hauled in six of his 11 targets for 31 yards.

Falcons fans shouldn’t be too concerned about the performance of the offense, though. They had three terrible turnovers, but Ryan’s track record is too strong and Atlanta’s offense just has too much talent for this to be a trend moving forward. (The defense is another story — the Vikings only had to throw the ball 10 times!)

They’ll be fine on that side of the ball, and so will the former MVP. — Charles McDonald

Why it’s a fluke: Dalton might be 2019’s FitzMagic, but that’s it. The Bengals didn’t look like much coming into 2019. While they’d fired longtime coach Marvin Lewis, their fresh start relied heavily on bringing unreliable performers like Bobby Hart and Tyler Eifert back into the fold. With A.J. Green stuck in a walking boot, the outlook was grim for the Cincinnati offense.

And then Andy Dalton threw for a league-high 418 yards against the Seahawks.

Granted, it took him 51 passes to get there, but it was a still an efficient and powerful performance for a player who missed a good chunk of 2018 due to injury. Dalton thrived under new head coach Zac Taylor’s guidance. So did former first-round wideout John Ross, who had seven catches for 158 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

That’s great, but it’s in no way sustainable. Ross’ previous career highs before last Sunday were three catches and 52 yards. His breakout game in Seattle was every bit as attributable to the failings of the Seahawks’ secondary as to his route running.

He won’t be able to catch opponents sleeping after that Week 1 explosion. Although Dalton can turn to 1,000-yard wideout Tyler Boyd if Ross regresses, the rest of his wideout room is pretty limited until Green returns to the field.

Dalton had never thrown for 400+ yards in his career before Week 1. Green, Boyd, and a leveled-up Ross can get him there again this fall — but it’ll take a while, and he’s going to need another team with a tissue-soft secondary to get there. — Christian D’Andrea

Why it’s a fluke: Loading up with players like Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, and Yannick Ngakoue has given Jacksonville a top-five defense the last couple years. It was the reason the Jaguars made it as far as the AFC Championship in the 2017 season.

They sure didn’t look good defensively in Week 1, though.

The Jaguars gave up 40 points, 491 yards of total offense, and finished with zero sacks or turnovers. On the other hand, it was the Chiefs — a team that averaged 35.3 points and 425.6 yards per game in 2018.

If other teams on the Jaguars’ schedule are licking their chops at the prospect of lighting up the secondary the way Patrick Mahomes did, they’re probably not going to be so fortunate. The Jaguars are still stacked with playmakers on that side of the ball and should bounce back just fine. They’re too talented not to. — Adam Stites

Why it’s a fluke: Despite what Gregg Williams says, Odell Beckham Jr. is one of the NFL’s most dynamic players. Pairing him up with a hotshot young quarterback, and a head coach whose offense was tailor-made for big plays, seemed like a free fireworks show every week.

Things started off so promising too:

After that? Meh. While Beckham was the Browns’ leading receiver, his seven-catch, 71-yard day was average for him and, frankly, kinda boring. No touchdowns. No one-handed grabs. No kicking net proposals. Mayfield zeroed in on his new No. 1 wideout a little too much, targeting him 11 times and looking like he was try to force the connection — or a play.

Things should be able to come along naturally, though. Beckham didn’t play at all in the preseason due to a hip injury and likely still isn’t at full strength. Mayfield had little protection from an offensive line whose starting left tackle was ejected.

Both players should be motivated after their lackluster Week 1 performances, especially because they tend to feed off their haters. And if anything could help their chemistry, it’s teaming up to get revenge on Williams, a coach Beckham accused of purposely trying to injure him. As for Mayfield, we already know how much he likes to get back at former coaches. Week 2 against the Jets could be the real beginning of a beautiful friendship. — Sarah Hardy