SB Nation is predicting which NBA players will be the 101 best ... in four years.
As we endeavor to embarrass our future selves predict who will be the best NBA players in 2021 this week, it seemed appropriate to flash back to the last time we pulled this nonsense engaged in this exercise. Back in 2013, a collection of SB Nation NBA writers predicted who would be the top 100 players in 2017.
Of course, to help us determine that, we need to have some sort of idea of who the actual top 100 NBA players of 2017 are. This is somewhat controversial, but we do not present the list solely for the purposes of arguing. (We do that elsewhere on this website.)
This list was only developed as a way to learn from our predictions of four years ago. What types of players did we overvalue or undervalue? What is the actual difficulty in predicting players’ futures — assessing how players will age, how they will develop, who will get injured?
We share those learnings in a separate piece. Here, we just lay out the top 100 players of 2017 to use as our baseline for that effort. In parenthesis: our projected rankings for these players four years ago.
What is this thing?
Why we’re predicting the 101 best players of 2021
Hood probably would have been 30 spots higher if this list had been made in 2016. Basketball is weird.
Randle remains one of the most divisive young players in the NBA. His free agency is coming up soon and should be educational.
It’s hard to know where to rank defense-only players given the fact that defense is undervalued and easier to purchase on the market. But Roberson is such a good defender that he definitely belongs in the top 25 percent in the league.
Wilson Chandler quietly puts up solid numbers in Denver when he’s healthy and not playing in China. Keep in mind that being the No. 97 player in the league puts you on what would be 20th team All-NBA. Coming in here is a compliment for sure, but it’s not that high of a compliment.
Anderson’s contract is gnarly — too gnarly to move, in fact -- but he’s quite a productive and useful player.
Lopez is a good defender who offers high-efficiency, low-volume offense. Quite a useful big man in today’s NBA.
Microwave bench scorers who don’t demand to start are valuable.
He still gets buckets and rebounds well into his 30s.
92. Jonas Valanciunas (18)
Valanciunas has never really put it all together -- I am among those who swore he’d be an All-Star someday -- but as with Lopez and others, he does enough to be quite useful at worst.
This is some projection to be sure, but Russell has a few tools that should serve him well, even if never becomes the star the Lakers originally saw him becoming.
One of my favorite young players in the league.
The less we talk about Nerlens Noel at this point, the better.
We’re not really considering contracts in this exercise. If we were, the ultra-affordable Crowder would be even higher. As it is, he’s a valuable wing defender and shooter who fits into a role. That’s so useful.
Gasol’s status is debatable at this point. But even though he’s a major minus on defense at this stage of his career, he gets buckets and rebounds. He can still pass like a maestro, too.
This may be too low for Middleton, a classic three-and-D who serves the defense-first Bucks quite well.
Kanter would have been a prime player in the ‘90s or early ‘00s. These days, he’s a value reserve scorer and rebounder. You still need good reserves in the NBA!
A leggy, energetic and smart defender who is just perfect for the Rockets’ frenetic style (provided it continues to be frenetic under the yoke of Chris Paul).
Slow Mo Joe is a cerebral, skilled forward who can shoot and pass quite well. He should take on extra importance with Gordon Hayward gone.
There’s a serious argument to be made that Howard doesn’t belong on this list. But I value interior defense and rebounding enough to find him a spot.
80. Robert Covington (NR)
Covington is one of the best success stories in the NBA.
Zeller has largely met expectations in Charlotte. I’m not sure there’s another leap up for him, but he’s already solid.
Someone, please, for the love of the Basketball Gods and all that is holy, figure out how to use Aaron Gordon in the NBA.
Someone, please, for the love of the Basketball Gods and all that is holy, let Zach LaVine come back as bouncy as ever.
Someone, please, for the love of the Basketball Gods and all that is holy, don’t let Jabari go out like Brandon Roy. We’ve been hurt too many times.
While I am concerned about the loss of the mustache, I remain confident Adams will bounce back from a down year to provide strong supplemental scoring and plenty of rebounding and defense for the Thunder.
74. Danilo Gallinari (64)
Gallo is an extremely competent scorer, and scoring matters a great deal in the NBA.
What a career twist in Miami!
The Serge Ibaka Drop-off has been greatly exaggerated. He was one of the most valuable Raptors down the stretch of last season, and his defense remains key.
I don’t know exactly why the Wolves paid Teague so much more than what Ricky Rubio would have cost, but that doesn’t mean Teague is bad. He’s a good scorer and able to fit in around more talented teammates.
Praise be the Clutch God, the King of Onions, the Master of Daggers.
68. Tristan Thompson (55)
Flexible defense from your big man is still highly important, as is rebounding.
Defense and passing are really important skills for a point guard, it turns out.
Jackson is a tough player to rank. This grade requires you to believe the Jackson that led Detroit to a good record and playoff berth two years ago is the real Jackson. We’ll see.
Morris made quite a nice role for himself on a good Wizards team. We’ll see if his twin can do the same on the hated Celtics.
Oladipo isn’t equal value in a trade for Paul freaking George, but we shouldn’t hold that against him. He’s a solid two-way two guard in a league full of them.
Batum didn’t actually have a down year after signing his big contract, and 15-6-6 is nothing to sneeze at.
You never know. Being freed from the shackles of having a role on a good team could be wonderful for Schroder’s numbers.
Vooch puts up numbers on a mystifying Orlando team.
Harris is quickly climbing the two-guard rankings. There aren’t many you’d rather have at this point.
It’s hard to know whether Green is a product of Memphis’ morphing system or whether he’d be this good anywhere.
58. Patrick Beverley (NR)
Perhaps the best defender at point guard in the league, and a reliable shooter. His fit in Los Angeles will be fascinating. He’s not really a Doc Rivers type.
Gordon stayed healthy in 2016-17, and that’s always been the only thing holding him back. He’s a dynamo scorer who can shoot and get to the rim.
He has to learn how to properly feed Anthony Davis and Boogie Cousins. If he does, Holiday should be just the third banana New Orleans needs.
Dwyane Wade at 60 percent is better than most two guards at 100 percent.
Efficient, young 17-point scorers don’t grow on trees!
Lost in the Pistons’ disaster season is the fact that Harris continues to be a really solid NBA forward.
I’m not sure how Hill will succeed in Sacramento -- or what success would even look like there — but he proved his worth in Utah last year.
Perhaps Turner deserves to be much higher on this list. He should get a big bump in usage rate this season. Let’s see how he deals with those extra possessions on offense.
In the top-100 list in our hearts, Hoodie Melo is No. 1.
Porter will get extra scrutiny because of his enormous contract, but ignoring the money, he was incredibly valuable for a good Wizards team last season.
How much losing Bradley hurts the Celtics will be an interesting plot line to follow this season.
The perfect center for James Harden and probably Chris Paul.
When do they build the Brook Lopez statue in Brooklyn?
Is 44 Embiid’s rank in today’s NBA, or the number of games he’ll play next season? Your call.
Dragic was a key engine behind Miami’s shocking run to the edge of the playoff race. He’s goooood.
42. LaMarcus Aldridge (21)
Aldridge has been a relative disappointment in San Antonio, but he’s still among the better power forwards in the NBA.
There are 24-30 All-Stars in any given season, depending on injuries. So consider that Barnes is just a bit outside that range. He’s not Kevin Durant, and he’s not really modern wing in the sense that he can’t draw fouls or get to the rim, but he’s pretty good.
Horford had a slow start with Boston, but he quickly became a key cog and fan-favorite.
I don’t even want to start talking about this.
38. Hassan Whiteside (NR)
The Instagram King and 20-10 machine!
It’s going to be really interesting to see how Love is featured in a post-Kyrie world.
Bledsoe had one of the best quiet seasons in the league in 2016-17. His talents are being shrouded in bad Phoenix.
Booker is also in Phoenix, but his spectacular offense is able to pull attention because of the gaudy numbers.
34. Kristaps Porzingis (NR)
Porzingis is already the best Knick (Hoodie Melo plays for no one), and he had an All-Star case a year ago. Odds are he gets there this season.
The divisive Andrew Wiggins. Twenty-three points on not-inefficient shooting, though?
Just need a little more defense and a trade to the East to get him onto the All-Star team.
Health and a new coach unlocked the Bradley Beal experience for all to enjoy. Keep it up.
Still the most underrated player in the NBA, seven years running.
If he weren’t on the wrong side of 32, he’d be a few spots higher.
Ditto Millsap, who should nonetheless be a solid influence in Denver’s revamped attack.
Jordan took a huge step forward in Blake Griffin’s absence last year, and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares without Chris Paul running the show.
You wonder how Lowry feels about the Cavs-Celtics point guard swap. Does Lowry see a path through either or both teams now?
Jokic had the fastest rise in reputation I think I’ve ever seen.
Griffin is divisive. I think he can still be a top-10 player if he’s in a good place mentally. Still, I don’t know where his head is. No. 22 seems safe.
Incredible numbers and everyone will be watching him.
Note that I ranked Thomas one spot below Irving before the blockbuster trade. The gap is larger taking the future into account; I’m looking only at a moment in time. I do think Jae Crowder makes up that gap in this moment in time, and I believe the other assets close the longer-term gap as well.
But still, Kyrie is better right now.
Hayward hasn’t played with a point guard like Kyrie since his very early days in Utah (Deron Williams). It might be a wild adjustment.
Dame is probably a top-5 most exciting player to watch.
New Pippen remains an absolute treasure on the overpowered Warriors.
The fit in Houston could be awkward while CP3 and James Harden figure things out, but CP3 always figures things out.*
(* Applies only from October to mid-April.**)
(** Sorry, that was rude.)
9. Karl-Anthony Towns (NR)
I’ll be shocked if Towns isn’t an All-Star and first team All-NBA center. He’s here.
FUTURE MVP. (What a huge season for A.D.)
Legitimately in the running for the best player in the world.
Greatest shooter ever by a substantial margin.
Neck-and-neck for Greatest Player Alive status.
... but LeBron is still the king. And maaaybe the G.O.A.T.
