2021 NBA player rankings, Nos. 90-81: Will players like DeAndre Jordan be valuable in 4 years?

This was the point in our countdown of the 101 best players in the NBA in four years where strategies began to diverge. Some of us chose established players today that we think will age decently. Others swung for the fences with rookies and other younger players.

The end result was a lively section of the countdown, concluding with a fascinating discussion at No. 81.

Age in 2021: 27 (5 seasons)

CHRIS GREENBERG: We don’t really know what will happen in four minutes, let alone four years. But we can make educated guesses — and totally outlandish ones.

I’d like to think that it’s a safe bet to forecast a 23-year-old, 6’10 forward who averaged 13 points, six rebounds, and two assists per game en route to All-Rookie first-team honors as one of the league’s top 100 players in four years.

TIM CATO: I bet in 2021, Saric is better than at least one of the Sixers we picked ahead of him. There’s too much of a boom-or-bust with Simmons and Embiid for that not to be true.

I don’t even know if I actually believe that, but making grandiose predictions like that is what this exercise is designed for, so let’s do it.

TOM ZILLER: If I start calling Saric the Croatian Gallinari, will Sixersland get mad again? Or is that a compliment?

Age in 2021: 27 (8 seasons)

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: If Dennis Schroder isn’t the safest pick at No. 89 in this draft, he did something wrong.

JEFF SIEGEL, PEACHTREE HOOPS: Already one of the top 101 players in the game, has Schroder topped out as a low-tier starting point guard, or will he make another leap? Better shooting and creating for others would go a long way to pushing him up the list.

TIM CATO: He’s fine. This pick is fine. I like his hair.

MATT ELLENTUCK: Aggressively fine, still probably picked too late in this draft. Anyway, yeah, great hair.

TOM ZILLER: Barring a trade, he’s going to spend at least the next few years on an atrocious team that no one outside of Atlanta watches in the best of times. Are we going to remember Dennis Schroder’s name in four years?

CHRIS GREENBERG: Provided he gets heated with a more famous opponent during the Hawks’ unremarkable playoff appearances, we will certainly remember his name. For about three weeks every April.

Age in 2021: 32 (7th season)

WHITNEY MEDWORTH: Whiteside will be 32 in 2021 but the Miami sunshine is going to preserve him a little longer. Plus, he didn’t really start the NBA grind until 2015, so he’ll have some legs left. I have more confidence that Whiteside, king of NBA Snapchat, will be more relevant in the NBA in 2021 than Snapchat will be.

MIKE PRADA: Four years is plenty of time to discover that parrot’s true killer.

I suspect Heat fans will be mad about this ranking, but it seems about right to me. Tough to know how much longevity he’ll have.

MATT PINEDA, HOT HOT HOOPS: Whiteside risks getting left behind by centers that can shoot and even guard the perimeter. Luckily for him, he already got his payday.

TOM ZILLER: I am disappointed in myself that I didn’t pick Whiteside in the top 25.

TIM CATO: Remember when he was reportedly favoring the Mavericks in free agency last summer? El em ay oh.

MIKE PRADA: Did you really just spell that out?

Age in 2021: 24 (4 seasons)

TIM CATO: As frequently and liberally as we picked from these 2017 rookies (FORESHADOWING!), I’m surprised Mitchell didn’t get snapped up earlier than this. He was a steals machine in Louisville who thrived shooting tons of threes and has a bit of an inside game, too. He’s a more athletic Damian Lillard if he hits his peak, albeit maybe without quite the same scoring knack. He showed all those skills off in summer league, and it really looks like Utah has their point guard of the future here.

TOM ZILLER: Yeah, why wouldn’t you be surprised that a fringe lottery pick who will be coming off his rookie deal in four years and hasn’t played a single minute in the NBA went behind a few dozen All-NBA and All-Star performers in their primes in an every-player draft? A real shocker.

(Yes, I’m salty about how many 2017 draft picks went in this exercise. As Cato says: FORESHADOWING.)

TIM CATO: FINE, BE A HATER. Riding or dying with Mitchell myself.

MYCHAL LOWMAN, SLC DUNK: This ranking is too low. Mitchell will have turned into one of the league’s top 30 players by 2021, jumping the depth chart and taking over Rodney Hood’s starting spot in his rookie year.

MATT ELLENTUCK: Will he be a point guard, though? Or will he stay on the wing? Finding his position will take some time, though there’s a lot to like about a long-wingspanny defender.

Age in 2021: 26 (7 seasons)

KOFIE YEBOAH: Julius Randle has the physical tools to be a nightmare on both sides of the court. It will come down to how much he can improve his game over these crucial years.

The good news is that he’s only 22. I’ve been going off optimism this whole draft and I’m not stopping here. I think the ceiling is the roof and that we haven’t seen the best of Randle just yet.

DREW GARRISON, SILVER SCREEN AND ROLL: Randle being this low is disappointing. It reflects a clear lack of confidence in his ability to progress to much beyond what he is today.

ZITO MADU: I just really hope he stops running head-first into defenders as a way to create separation. I understand playing bully basketball, but he needs to add some finesse.

TIM CATO: But I thought Randle was already the 17th-best player in the NBA? (Sorry, Prada, you get to make fun of my picks in 2021.)

MIKE PRADA: Ahem, 14th. Get it right.

I remain skeptical of power forwards that lack shooting range and can’t protect the rim. It’s just too hard to create the right kind of lineup to mask both of those flaws, and Randle isn’t nearly good enough to earn the privilege of a team reconstructing itself around him. I want him to be good because he’s fun to watch, but I don’t see it.

TOM ZILLER: Oh now Prada is skeptical of Young Carl Landry!

MATT ELLENTUCK: I want Randle to grow like two inches and suddenly protect the rim. I just don’t see it happening. Maybe he’ll be a top-100 2K player, though.

Age in 2021: 29 (9 seasons)

MIKE PRADA: Barnes was actually quite solid in Dallas last year and should play even more at power forward (his best position) with Dirk Nowitzki retiring someday. A No. 85 ranking puts you at essentially 17th-team All-NBA level, which seems about right for him for the next few years.

TOM ZILLER: Readers will not believe some of the names that went higher than Harrison Barnes.

TIM CATO: I should have drafted him a while ago. This is way too low for someone who’s a gym rat’s gym rat, enough that Dirk has said how impressed he is by it. He’ll maybe never shoot enough free throws or threes to be a top-50 player, but he’s only 25 and he certainly still has room to grow.

MATT ELLENTUCK: I feel guilty that Barnes slipped this low. But I just love my next pick too much.

MIKE PRADA: OK let’s settle down a second. Barnes, even at his best last year, was decidedly “fine.” We kinda know that’s who he is at this point. That puts you around this range and maybe a little higher, but not like 30 spots higher.

ZITO MADU: But is he Kevin Durant? No? That’s all that matters.

CHRIS GREENBERG: The real Harrison Barnes will never live up to the possibility of Harrison Barnes.

Age in 2021: 30 (8 seasons)

MATT ELLENTUCK: THIS IS MY FAVORITE PICK IN THIS ENTIRE DRAFT.

How can you not love the Robert Covington story? The man played college ball at Tennessee State, went undrafted, and is a better-than-league-average player in 2017. The Process gave him a chance and he took it and ran.

It’s not that wild to think that in four years, at 30 years old, Covington will have it all figured out. He was seventh in RPM among small forwards last season, and he’ll be playing beside Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz next year.

I believe in RoCo.

TIM CATO: This is a good sleeper pick for a really underrated player.

MIKE PRADA: Settle down, Matt. It’s Robert Covington. He’s fine and this is fine.

TOM ZILLER: Odds are he’ll be a starter because of his skills and the Sixers’ need for shooting around Ben Simmons. The downside is that we’ve seen plus two-guards fade away after an injury or a down season before. I will remember you, Kelenna Azubuike and Brandon Rush. It’s the most easily replaceable position. There’s a risk here.

Age in 2021: 23 (4 seasons)

RICKY O’DONNELL: Isaac might never a big scorer, but he’s the type of player who just helps you win games. He can defend anyone, hit a spot-up jump shot, and has the athleticism to get out in transition. The world demands an Aaron Gordon-Isaac front court in Orlando.

MATT ELLENTUCK: I love Isaac as a prospect, and think he should have been in top-three consideration in this year’s draft. He’s a real project, though, and I don’t think four years from now he’ll be this good.

CORY HUTSON, ORLANDO PINSTRIPED POST: This feels about right for an offensively limited, defensively outstanding forward, if that turns out to be his destiny.

TOM ZILLER: This is the second 2017 draftee picked in our draft. Don’t worry, there will be plenty more.

Age in 2021: 30 (11 seasons)

JOHN KETCHUM: Avery Bradley will only improve now that he plays for a Detroit team giving him an even bigger role. He’s a solid role player who will be able to give a lot of teams what they need, even several years down the line.

LAZARUS JACKSON, DETROIT BAD BOYS: Pistons fans are happy with Avery Bradley, but when 2021 rolls around, they’ll wish he’d been showing Donovan Mitchell the ropes for the last four years.

CHRIS GREENBERG: Bradley’s perimeter defense may be less notable on a lesser team (sorry Pistons) than the Celtics, but he also developed into Boston’s low-key best spot-up shooter before being traded. Watch for his offense to get more attention in Detroit.

TOM ZILLER: I’m on board with Avery Bradley for the long term.

Age in 2021: 32 (12 seasons)

TOM ZILLER: Jordan is a 29-year-old All-NBA center. He’s missed eight games in the past seven years. He does certain things very well, and he knows what they are. Some team is going to have to decide to pay him next summer, and I think it’ll be a good investment.

LUCAS HANN, CLIPS NATION: This is a fair (or even high) spot for Jordan, who will be 33 in 2021 and will likely follow a similar athletic decline to Tyson Chandler’s.

MIKE PRADA: A safe pick, but will the NBA be a friendly place in 2021 for centers with no range and abhorrent free-throw percentages? If yes, this is too low. If not, it’s possible players like DAJ will go extinct like traditional low-post scorers are today.

TIM CATO: I don’t think rim protection is going anywhere, though.

MIKE PRADA: Is DeAndre even that amazing at that, though? He allowed 50.1 percent shooting at the rim last year, which is good, but well behind the elite players. He was higher two years ago, but closer to his 2016-17 levels the two years before that. I’m not saying he’s a bad rim protector, but that’s where Jordan derives most of his current value. That’s why I am curious to see how he evolves as the league continues to change.

TIM CATO: In regards to his shot blocking, that’s fair. But even the most modern offenses don’t require constant five-out lineups. More centers will shoot threes, but I don’t believe all the best centers will need to as a requirement. Four-out with a big-man roller is still a perfectly acceptable offense that I really don’t think is headed towards extinction.

To steal an Erik Spoelstra term, the vertical spacing that bouncy, lob-finishing big men provide can still be just as important as a dead-eye shooter in the corner.

MIKE PRADA: Yeah, there’s a good chance it still will. Seventy-thirty in his favor, I’d say. Just remember how much the game changed stylistically from 2013 to 2017. We could see another revolution.

INTRO | FULL LIST | TOP 100 OF 2017 | HOW WE DID IN 2013 | SNUBS | 101-91 | 90-81 | 80-71 | 70-61 | 60-51 | 50-41 | 40-31 | 30-21 | 20-11 | 10-1 | THE CASES FOR NO. 1