2021 NBA player rankings, Nos. 30-21: These players will be borderline All-Stars in 4 years

We’re now into All-Star territory on our Top 101 of 2021 NBA countdown. As such, a few of us went nuts over blue-chippers with potential, while a few others went back to good ol’ reliable NBA productivity. The end result is a nice mix of players that seemingly rank way above the previous batch on this list.

Now is when this list gets serious. Now is where our reputations, such as they even exist, will be judged.

Age in 2021: 31 (10 seasons)

CHRIS GREENBERG: Jimmy Butler is not a one-trick pony. He was one of just six NBA players in the top-15 in offensive AND defensive win shares last season. The others? Kawhi, Westbrook, Curry, Durant, and Giannis. Butler is a 27-year-old horse who will lead a group of young stallions in Minnesota.

OK, I’m out of equine metaphors, but Butler is not out of years. If Tom Thibodeau doesn’t break him, Butler will keep working hard, improve his two-way game, and make us silly for letting him slip so far. He’ll be just 31 years old in 2021. That’s younger than LeBron James right now.

ERIC GOLDMAN, CANIS HOOPUS: If the Wolves have three legit top 30 guys -- Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns are still on the board — I’m not sure I’ll know what to do with myself.

TOM ZILLER: I can’t believe Butler went this low. I almost took him at No. 21. When it looked like he’d be there at 31, I was dumbfounded. So, uh, good pick.

MATT ELLENTUCK: Letting Butler slip this low is one of our collective worst crimes in this draft.

MIKE PRADA: I was deciding between Butler and the No. 25 guy on this list, and it was very difficult.

JOHN MEYER, CANIS HOOPUS: I don’t care what his rating is in 2021. I just hope the Wolves will have figured out how to clone him by then.

RICKY O’DONNELL: Still not over how stupid the Bulls are.

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: I just want an argyle sock monkey.

Age in 2021: 29 (8 seasons)

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: The risk of taking a big man in these drafts is their susceptibility to injury, and Rudy Gobert is equally at risk. As long as he stays healthy, however, he has the physical tools to become the league’s most imposing defensive center over the next few years. With that title, how could he not be a top-30 player.

TOM ZILLER: Kristian with a shockingly sane pick!

WHITNEY MEDWORTH: There’s a first for everything.

MATT ELLENTUCK: Fam, he doesn’t play for the Knicks though.

MYCHAL LOWMAN, SLC DUNK: Being rated at No. 29 in 2021 is no small feat for Gobert, as he will be pushing the end of his prime at age 29. We think he’ll have anchored the Jazz for the lastfour4 years as their main star alongside phenom Donovan Mitchell on the outside.

TIM CATO: My only concern is this: headed into the 2013 season, there were five centers in the top-25, according to one list. Those five were Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, and Roy Hibbert. Two have fallen off completely, another two have clearly declined, and only Gasol is hanging onto his same level of production.

The career of a center can die a swift, quick death, and Gobert already has a history of injuries. Gobert remaining in the top-30 come 2021 is far from certain.

Age in 2021: 26 (7 seasons)

WHITNEY MEDWORTH: Wiggins will still only be 26 in 2021. Assuming that playing for Thibodeau doesn’t make his body feel like he’s actually 36, he’ll be just fine. Playing alongside a veteran in Jimmy Butler won’t hurt his game. It’ll only help it.

JOHN MEYER, CANIS HOOPUS: I really wish you guys would have doubled down on your 2013 prediction (No. 8) just to get the people going.

ERIC GOLDMAN, CANIS HOOPUS: Sweet, he’s going to learn to play defense!

MIKE PRADA: I’m worried about Wiggins. We know he can score, but he continues to show a troubling disinclination to do much else despite his immense physical gifts. Maybe Butler helps, or maybe his intense demeanor clashes with Wiggins’ mild-mannered nature like oil and water. Glen Taylor’s request that Wiggins commit to improving before handing him a maximum contract was patronizing as hell, but it says something that Taylor believed he needs to say those things, does it not?

It’s possible the above paragraph looks dumb in four years and Wiggins reaches his full potential. Maybe he needs tough love after all. I hope so!

But this is a big season for Wiggins, and I’m not sure the conditions are all set up for him to thrive.

TOM ZILLER: Glen Taylor hired David Kahn. I don’t think we need to defer to his basketball expertise. I think Thibodeau and Butler will be excellent for Wiggins: he’s going to continue to be challenged to improve every day.

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: He needs to step up.

Age in 2021: 27 (9 seasons)

TIM CATO: How the hell is Bradley Beal only 23? I swear he’s been in the league since the Napoleonic Era.

There’s injuries to consider, sure, but we’re all encouraged by his career year posted last season: career highs in points per game, field goal percentage, made threes, and assists, all while keeping his turnovers (2.0) exactly the same as the previous two seasons. That’s a stellar sign for his future.

TOM ZILLER: What a difference one healthy year makes. There’s no way he would have gone this high last summer.

MIKE PRADA: You mean, “what a difference playing for a real coach makes.” Scott Brooks got Beal to ditch Randy Wittman’s bizarre long two fascination and dramatically upped Beal’s three-point and free-throw rates. Funny how a sweet shooter and slithery penetrator starts to look better when he’s put in a position to take the right kind of shots.

TOM ZILLER: Well, also when he’s not in street clothes. Wittman wasn’t Tonya Hardinging him out there.

MIKE PRADA: We sure about that?

CHRIS GREENBERG: Just think, by 2021 there will be even fewer people who will understand a Tonya Harding reference. Gillooly!

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: Not better than C.J. McCollum.

Age in 2021: 23 (4 seasons)

KOFIE YEBOAH: Dennis Smith Jr. has superstar potential. The athleticism is crazy and his aggressive nature around the rim paired with that athleticism will be a sight to behold in the league for years to come.

People may be concerned about his health, and that’s understandable. However, Smith Jr. was excellent in Summer League, and that was just a sample of what he can do in the years to come.

DOYLE RADER, MAVS MONEYBALL: Even though Smith Jr. is often mentioned in the Rookie of the Year discussion, this is an extremely high ranking, as he has yet to play a single minute of NBA basketball.

TIM CATO: Point guards take time to develop, which is my only concern about this rankings. Everything else, pending health, points to Smith being so, so good. He’s not just athletic, he’s wow-are-we-witnessing-evolution-right-now explosive. He’s a gifted passer with a more-than-passable jump shot. The defensive instincts are there, though — like many rookies — there is still work that can be done. In a sea of tall point guards this draft, Smith may seem short ... but he’s still 6’3!

Maybe he’s still developing in 2021, but I’m convinced he’ll end up somewhere very high on this list.

MIKE PRADA: Yeah, let’s slllooowwww down on these young point guards. It usually takes a while for them to make their mark.

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: Kofie drank the juice, y’all.

MATT ELLENTUCK: LET THE YOUNG POINT GUARDS GROW.

KOFIE YEBOAH: THE FUTURE IS HERE, MATT!

TOM ZILLER: For the record, this was the point in the draft where I knew I’d be getting wonderful value on players currently in the 26-29 age range.

Age in 2021: 31 (10 seasons)

MIKE PRADA: If you’re tall and can shoot the lights out, you will age beautifully. Extra points for being a terrific defender, too. The question is whether Thompson will achieve this ranking by remaining the Warriors’ most underappreciated star or by balling out on his own team.

TOM BEVILACQUA, GOLDEN STATE OF MIND: By the year 2021, Klay will be about the same age Ray Allen was when he was traded to Boston. Allen probably ranked just outside the top 25 of NBA players at that time, but Klay is a better defensive player than Allen was, so I’d say this seems about right.

TIM CATO: To put it in memespeak, Reggie Miller -> upgrade button -> Klay Thompson. I’d love to see him run the show somewhere before his prime is over.

WHITNEY MEDWORTH: I’m with Tim here. I think he may take a chance on himself in free agency in 2018 and I hope he does. For as much of a green light Thompson has in Golden State, I’d like to see it get even greener on another team.

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: I don’t think Thompson has takeover ability. He’s the league’s best two-way shooting guard — the ultimate role player. Not sure he goes higher than No. 25 no matter who’s around him.

TIM CATO: Ain’t no role player who ever dropped 60 points in 29 minutes.

WHITNEY MEDWORTH: On 11 dribbles.

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: In a system that benefits him, with shooters spacing the floor and selfless teammates actively finding the open man. Take all that away and what happens?

KOFIE YEBOAH: This happens.

BRADY KLOPFER, GOLDEN STATE OF MIND: This feels right to me, but I could easily see him being a good bit lower. Klay isn’t a phenomenal athlete by any stretch of the imagination, so any hit he takes on that front could have a pretty large impact. It wouldn’t shock me if he’s a decidedly average defensive player by the time he’s in his 30s, and if he stays in GS for the next few years, his offensive game may not develop much further.

Then again, he’s one of the greatest shooters of all time and knows his limitations as well or better than any star in the game.

Age in 2021: 30 (11 seasons)

MATT ELLENTUCK: DeMarcus Cousins has defied odds by becoming a legitimate three-point shooter at 36 percent in his seventh season in the league. He nearly doubled his attempts from the season before, and in his first five seasons took less than one per game.

Cousins knows how to adapt to survive as a big man in this league, and I have no doubt he’ll continue to make the necessary adjustments to stay among the top centers in the game.

OLEH KOSEL, THE BIRD WRITES: Probably easier to just flip a coin. Additional missed postseasons could effectively kill off Boogie’s in-the-best-shape-of-his-life alter-ego completely and allow malcontent DMC to reign supreme.

On a more positive note, the Fire-and-Ice relationship with Anthony Davis and subsequent playoff trips give way to a maturer Cousins, one who uses his vast array of skills for the greater good of his team to justify a top-25 ranking in four years.

MIKE PRADA: How many teams will Cousins play for between now and 2021?

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: Think the better question is how many wins will Boogie have between now and 2021?

CHRIS GREENBERG: More Boogie, please.

TOM ZILLER: No comment.

MIKE PRADA: All seriousness, Boogie’s offensive evolution ain’t the issue. It’s his defense and conditioning, neither of which has ever been up to par for the new NBA as of yet. Plus, there’s all the other stuff.

Age in 2021: 22 (3 seasons)

RICKY O’DONNELL: I’m buying the hype on Doncic, the 17-year-old Slovenian wunderkind who could be the first pick in the next NBA draft, for two reasons: his productivity and his skill level.

He’s already one of the best players in one of the best leagues in the world during a time when his American peers are in high school. He’s also a 6’8 point guard who can shoot, pass, and finish while playing the game with a rare creativity. I’ll bet on that advanced skill level over more athletic American prospects this time around.

TOM ZILLER: Fran Fraschilla is going to swell to twice his normal size talking about Doncic next June at the draft.

MIKE PRADA: Been a lot of fun watching him in Eurobasket, but this feels too soon for him to be an all-star caliber player. Put him in the top 10 on the 2025 list.

MATT ELLENTUCK: You lost me at “the 17-year-old ...”

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: I don’t know much about this kid, so I’m just gonna nod in agreement.

CHRIS GREENBERG: Considering where we’ve got REDACTED, I guess, this, maybe, makes sense. Either way, I’m here for the 6’8 point guards.

Age in 2021: 25 (6 seasons)

ZITO MADU: At just 21 years old, he’s already one of the best shot blockers in the league and the rare big man who can shoot threes, at least at a respectable level. He has a lot to improve on the offensive end and defending the post, but with such a great foundation and the spotlight on him now with Paul George, I expect for him to steadily improve.

CAITLIN COOPER, INDY CORNROWS: Prime-age stretch 5s aren’t going to suddenly depreciate in value by 2021, so there could be room for Myles Turner in the Top-25 somewhere behind Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic, and Kristaps Porzingis if his then fully developed frame is less apt to shy away from contact as the key cog within what is hopefully a more modern and imaginative offense.

MIKE PRADA: This is asking a hell of a lot from Turner. I know Pacers fans are desperate for a face of the franchise that embraces them, but we’re talking about him being a perennial all-star if he’s this high. It’s possible, but I would’ve taken the safer route and picked him several spots lower.

I worry the absence of George will simply raise expectations too much.

TOM ZILLER: This is going to be a very interesting season for Turner. I’m a little concerned about how much his guards can help him develop.

WHITNEY MEDWORTH: GREAT PICK, ZITO. I’m serious. I love this pick.

Age in 2021: 23 (4 seasons)

You may now realize that though many prospects from the 2017 draft class have been selected, an auspicious name has not yet come up. That is disrespect. I know my name is a bad word in some parts of Philly (despite my unrelenting Dion Waiters boosterism) but that is disrespect I cannot allow to stand.

TIM CATO: Just throwing this out there: I’ve talked to a surprising number of people within the NBA who think Fultz will never be anything other than an empty stats all-star on a bad team. I don’t think I agree, but it’s worth noting.

MIKE PRADA: Do they all work for the Boston Celtics?

TIM CATO: Yes. (OK, no, but it seems clear to me that Boston had the same concerns.)

CHRIS GREENBERG: With Simmons starting at point for Philly, this just seems kind of high for a backup. Right?

TOM ZILLER: Oh, my Shammgod, the disrespect! You all should probably delete Twitter from your phones now.

KRISTIAN WINFIELD: Lonzo Ball will be better. No disrespect, Fultz. You’re dope, too.

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