Temple Owls (10-3) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6)
December 27, 2016 ( 3:30 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Temple -13
S&P+ Projection: Temple (30.2-16.0)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Temple | Wake Forest | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 18 | 72 | ||
| Category | Temple offense | Wake Forest defense | Wake Forest offense | Temple defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.77 (51) | 5.11 (39) | 4.40 (124) | 4.44 (5) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 414.3 (63) | 363.6 (34) | 312.7 (123) | 276.2 (5) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.62 (38) | 1.63 (21) | 1.47 (121) | 1.46 (13) |
| Category | Temple offense | Wake Forest defense | Wake Forest offense | Temple defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 30.1 (64) | 23.3 (28) | 21.4 (112) | 17.5 (9) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 102.1 (68) | 98.7 (70) | 95.0 (94) | 110.3 (33) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 111.6 (39) | 104.5 (49) | 77.1 (124) | 126.0 (10) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 100.5 (69) | 95.5 (86) | 85.1 (122) | 118.6 (14) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 116.7 (30) | 118.9 (22) | 84.9 (113) | 115.4 (30) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 115.1 (36) | 111.2 (35) | 74.6 (122) | 116.2 (23) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 103.1 (64) | 106.2 (48) | 104.9 (61) | 130.0 (10) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 99.4 (72) | 98.5 (71) | 88.3 (109) | 124.5 (11) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 108.1 (41) | 92.3 (95) | 72.2 (127) | 109.8 (32) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Temple
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 6 defense vs. No. 126 offense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 10 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 9 defense vs. No. 123 offense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 2 defense vs. No. 114 offense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 15 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
Wake Forest
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 11 defense vs. No. 126 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 12 defense vs. No. 98 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 65 offense vs. No. 127 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 24 defense vs. No. 69 offense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 30 defense vs. No. 69 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Temple offense | Wake Forest defense | Wake Forest offense | Temple defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.37 (25) | 1.20 (33) | 1.20 (98) | 1.23 (50) |
| EFFICIENCY | 42.5% (65) | 40.9% (49) | 35.2% (124) | 35.0% (8) |
| FIELD POSITION | 34.2 (5) | 29.3 (72) | 30.4 (47) | 28.2 (42) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.7 (50) | 3.8 (18) | 3.8 (119) | 4.0 (28) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Temple 6.32 (16) Wake Forest 4.22 (32) |
ACTUAL Temple 6 (26) Wake Forest 8 (14) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Temple offense | Wake Forest offense |
| Adj. Pace | -2.0 (80) | -3.3 (90) |
| Plays per game | 71.8 (78) | 71.0 (88) |
| Possessions per game | 12.5 (89) | 13.1 (56) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 66.8% (26) | 62.6% (49) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 27.2% (107) | 40.7% (24) |
| % of solo tackles | 83.9% (10) | 76.5% (42) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Temple defense | Wake Forest defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 66.3% (19) | 56.5% (96) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 39.3% (20) | 38.3% (25) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 19.8% (9) | 17.3% (34) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 14.1% (5) | 11.8% (18) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 4.6% (117) | 5.5% (94) |
| PD to INC | 24.8% (124) | 32.1% (77) |
When Temple has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Temple Offense | Wake Forest Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 100.5 | 69 | 95.5 | 86 | Temple |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.7 | 66 | 47.5 | 63 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.14 | 57 | 1.04 | 71 | Temple |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.17 | 38 | 2.84 | 51 | Temple |
| SD Sack Rate | 10.2% | 126 | 7.9% | 11 | Wake Forest big |
Passing Downs
| Temple Offense | Wake Forest Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 116.7 | 30 | 118.9 | 22 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 31.7 | 58 | 27.7 | 27 | Wake Forest |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.07 | 11 | 1.76 | 5 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.61 | 116 | 3.28 | 69 | Wake Forest |
| PD Sack Rate | 3.4% | 7 | 11% | 12 | |
When Wake Forest has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Wake Forest Offense | Temple Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 85.1 | 122 | 118.6 | 14 | Temple big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 41.0 | 122 | 39.7 | 7 | Temple big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.03 | 106 | 1.11 | 32 | Temple big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.44 | 121 | 2.35 | 9 | Temple big |
| SD Sack Rate | 7.6% | 114 | 10.8% | 2 | Temple big |
Passing Downs
| Wake Forest Offense | Temple Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 84.9 | 113 | 115.4 | 30 | Temple big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 24.3 | 123 | 26.5 | 21 | Temple big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.71 | 77 | 1.50 | 73 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.32 | 64 | 2.88 | 35 | Temple |
| PD Sack Rate | 13.5% | 123 | 11.7% | 9 | Temple big |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
