Below, we’re keeping track of each top-25 game’s impact, both before and after final scores, mostly paying attention to CFP committee business, not highlights and stuff.
How Rivalry Week’s top-25 games are changing bowl projections
Keeping track of top-25 results, with postseason notes on each game as it goes final. Over here are fully updated bowl projections, now that all these games are done.
Photo by Corey Perrine/Getty Images
Remember the things the committee has mostly demonstrated it rewards: wins over final top-25 teams, wins over bowl teams, road wins, dominant wins, weirdly excusable losses, being Alabama, and not being a mid-major. It does not care what your opponent’s ranking was at kickoff.
Final scores in bold.
Probably important
Games in which the winning team should have a high-quality victory by season’s end or games that will decide a Power 5 division race. Or: really meaningful upsets.
- No. 1 Alabama 52, Auburn 21: For the second year in a row, the Tide might’ve clinched a spot regardless of what happens in conference title weekend. Last year, they did that without even winning this game. I don’t make the rules.
- No. 2 Clemson 56, South Carolina 35: With that schedule, Clemson couldn’t necessarily afford a loss. But with that level of dominance so far, maybe Clemson could’ve. Now to beat historically upset-prone Pitt.
- No. 3 Notre Dame 24, USC 17: Playoff.
- No. 10 Ohio State 62, No. 4 Michigan 39: If Ohio State makes the Playoff with a win over Northwestern (and this shocking beatdown is a HUGE argument against Oklahoma or whoever, but we’ll see), Michigan’s in the Rose due to being the Big Ten’s next-ranked team. I’d assume both are in the NY6 no matter what.
- No. 5 Georgia 45, Georgia Tech 21: The apocalypse scenario — UGA beats Bama in the SEC title game and maybe knocks the Big Ten or whoever out of the Playoff — is still lingering out there. The Dawgs clinch the Sugar Bowl at worst.
- No. 6 Oklahoma 59, No. 13 West Virginia 56: OU’s in the Big 12 Championship in a Red River Rematch, and the Big 12 ain’t out of the Playoff just yet.
- No. 22 Texas A&M 74, No. 7 LSU 72 in 7OT: Not a misprint. One of the most absurd games in football history ends with the Tigers’ New Year’s Six bid no longer certain, though I’m curious whether the committee will give the Tigers a partial mulligan for how that one went down. LSU should’ve won in regulation, but caught a bad call or two. And then, uh, played like a whole ‘nother game, but still.
- No. 16 Washington 28, No. 8 Washington State 15: The Huskies steal the Pac-12 North title. They’ll play Utah for a Rose bid. Wazzu should have a great shot at the Fiesta, meaning this was bad news for teams like Penn State. The Pac-12’s extremely out of the CFP.
- No. 14 Texas 24, Kansas 17: Ugly, but the Horns are going to the Big 12 Championship with a Sugar autobid on the line.
Maybe important
Games in which the winner should have something to show for it, such as at least a win over a decent bowl team.
- No. 11 Florida 41, Florida State 14: The Gators could make the Peach or Fiesta. They might be happier about ending FSU’s nation-leading bowl streak than about their own bowl destination, though.
- No. 12 Penn State 38, Maryland 3: The committee likes Penn State more than I’d anticipated, meaning PSU has a shot at the Peach or Fiesta, but those spots are becoming more scarce.
- No. 17 Utah 35, BYU 27: The Utes’ only path to the NY6 is by winning the Pac-12, and BYU’s already guaranteed an at-large bid to some bowl somewhere. Bowl quality for both could vary based on this big comeback win by the Utes.
- No. 18 Mississippi State 35, Ole Miss 3: MSU probably secures an above-average SEC bowl. This also ensures a highly ranked win for Bama, LSU, Florida, and Kentucky. What value!
- No. 20 Syracuse 42, Boston College 21: Could swing some ACC bowl positioning. The glory of the Camping World Bowl might’ve been in play.
- No. 25 Iowa State 42, Kansas State 38: ISU adds to its claim for a decent Big 12 bowl and ensures a ranked win for a team by the name of Oklahoma. K-State misses bowl season.
Important for the Group of 5 race
Since the committee’s showed for years that non-power teams have a REALLY long path to the Playoff, let’s have a separate section for the race to be the top-ranked mid-major champ.
- No. 9 UCF 38, USF 10: The undefeated Knights only need to beat Memphis in order to clinch the New Year’s Six despite losing star QB Milton McKenzie to an awful knee injury. However, a loss to Memphis would give the NY6 nod to the Mountain West champ — remember, the autobid is for the highest-ranked non-power champ.
- Memphis 52, Houston 31: The four-loss Tigers get UCF yet again, with a chance to knock the conference out of the New Year’s Six.
- No. 23 Boise State 33, No. 21 Utah State 24: Boise hosts Fresno State in the MWC title game. The winner would be the G5 autobid if Memphis were to win the AAC.
Probably not important
The committee tries not to care much about your wins over teams that finish with bad records, though you can get some credit for winning on the road or really laying it to folks. So for the ranked teams here: just don’t lose!
- No. 15 Kentucky 56, Louisville 10: I’d guess this finalizes UK’s case for the Citrus, one of the SEC’s best bowls.
- No. 19 Northwestern 24, Illinois 16: Northwestern will remain ranked somewhat generously. Good outcome for Ohio State and the Big Ten.
- Miami 24, No. 24 Pitt 3: A very average Pitt now has a chance to beat the No. 2 team. When has that ever happened before? Oh right, all the time.
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