Tracking NBA prospects in the 2013 NCAA Tournament

Nine of the last ten NCAA champions have had at least one lottery pick on their roster, with the one exception being Duke in 2010. Rewarding collegiate success hasn’t always worked out that well for NBA teams (see: Sean May, Mateen Cleaves), but there’s no denying it happens. The Final Four is the biggest stages in the sport, so everything a player does, win or lose, is magnified. The sheen of a championship can gloss over a lot of the flaws in a prospect’s game, which is why there’s so much money on the line this weekend.

For three of the four teams -- Louisville (Gorgui Dieng), Michigan (Trey Burke) and Syracuse (Michael Carter-Williams) -- one player has clearly emerged from the pack as a potential lottery selection. The fourth, Wichita State, is the classic Cinderella, with no players who have gotten legitimate buzz in NBA draft circles. The Shockers win or lose as a team, but the other three will only go as far as their best player can take them. For Dieng, Burke and Carter-Williams, this weekend is their first (and possibly best) chance at basketball immortality.

“I haven’t even really thought about that yet,” the 6-foot-4 guard said. “I’ve been thinking about Indiana basketball. Just being with these guys and getting better. That’s one thing I’ve been really thinking about, just getting better as a basketball player.”

The question is how much better Oladipo can get. When he came to the Hoosiers two years ago, it was tough to imagine the rangy recruit turning into an elite player. He was a decent perimeter defender, but had no semblance of a jumper, couldn’t score off the dribble and wasn’t considered one of the top 100 players in his high school class.

There aren’t many NCAA centers with the physical ability to play the position in the NBA. At the next level, the paint is the domain of some of the biggest and most athletic human beings in the world. There are plenty of plodding and unathletic centers in college, but an NBA center has to be able to win wrestling matches with guys like Roy Hibbert, Omer Asik and Tyson Chandler on a nightly basis. Half of the guards in high-major conferences are NBA-caliber athletes; there are only a small handful of centers in the country who fit that description.

Gorgui Dieng, Louisville’s junior center, is one of them. That’s why scouts at a Basketball Without Borders camp in South Africa noticed him when he was a teenager, and it’s why he would up at a prep school in West Virginia despite knowing virtually no English. Since he picked up the game later in life, he was still a relative neophyte when he came to Louisville three years ago.

The 23-year-old from Senegal will never be an offensive-minded center. There’s no sign he has any sort of post play, and although he shot 68 percent from the line this year, he can still have days like his 2-for-8 outing from the line Sunday. But there’s no doubt he’s been efficient: his 14 points on eight shots means that he’s now 20-for-24 from the field in the tournament, averaging 11 points per game. And the defense is still there, as he blocked three shots and grabbed 11 boards against the Blue Devils. He looks like an ideal backup center or perhaps a starter for a team with go-to scorers at guard spots.

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The opportunity to dazzle on college basketball’s biggest stage in the Final Four gives Burke more breathing room to expand on his draft stock, which can only go up from here.

Burke put on the heroics during the Wolverines victory to propel them to the Elite Eight which will serve as the biggest catapult for his draft stock thus far through the tournament, but against the Gators he showed an important piece of his game as a point guard -- the ability to break his defender down and penetrate into the paint.

Two players currently projected to be selected in the lottery in the 2013 NBA Draft will try to lead their respective teams to the Final Four Sunday.

Burke is currently projected to go No. 10 overall and Plumlee No. 12 overall by DraftExpress.

The Orange held Marquette to just 23 percent shooting and Carter-Williams impacted the game in several ways. His length helped bother Marquette’s shooters -- he blocked two shots -- and allowed him to get into passing lanes, finishing with three steals. He was a force on the boards from the guard spot, grabbing 11 rebounds. He ran the offense effectively with five assists and just two turnovers and, in a game where both teams struggled shooting the ball, Carter-Williams scored 12 points on nine shots. He even made his only three-point attempt, which is the most notable weakness in his game.

The 6’5 guard is intriguing from a NBA perspective because his size, athleticism and passing ability would make him a great weapon at the point guard spot. He’s currently projected to go 15th overall by DraftExpress.

Read more at Duke Basketball Report.

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On Friday against Michigan, McLemore played much better, helping Kansas build a double-digit lead, but the Jayhawks could not hold off a late Michigan rally and lost, 87-85, in overtime. McLemore finished with 20 points, shot 8 for 15, including 4 for 8 from three-point range, and grabbed five rebounds, showing why he’s considered a likely top-five pick should he enter the NBA Draft.

McLemore, a 6’5 guard, averaged 15.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game this season while shooting 49 percent and 42 percent from three-point range. He’s currently projected as the second overall pick in the draft by DraftExpress.

Burke didn’t make a shot in the first half as Michigan trailed by as many as 14 points in the game, and he shot just 4-for-11 from three-point range in regulation, but one of those threes was a 30-footer with four seconds remaining to complete a comeback for Michigan and send the game to overtime, where Michigan eventually won, 87-85.

Burke finished with 23 points, and even when his shot wasn’t falling he kept Michigan in striking distance with his passing, finishing with 10 assists.

Ben McLemore - Freshman - Kansas: McLemore is an explosive athlete who ranks No. 2 on the DX board behind Kentucky center Nerlens Noel. He needs to work on the finer points of his game, but scouts are excited about his prototypical size. It has been a rough tournament for McLemore, however. Through two games he has scored just 13 points on 2-14 shooting. Kansas has been one of the more disappointing high seeds to survive and advance in the tournament thus far, but a big performance against Michigan would go a long way to improving that image.

Trey Burke - Sophomore - Michigan: He’s been the talk of the advanced stats community for the majority of the season thanks to his efficient style of play and mastery of pick-and-roll situations. He is small (listed at 6’0), but his production speaks itself. The No. 10 player on the DX board rebounded from a lackluster opening game by scoring 18 points and dishing out seven assists to help Michigan knock of VCU in the Round of 32.

In a one-and-done scenario, a bad match-up can sink even the best teams. That happened to tournament favorite Indiana in the Sweet 16, when they ran into Syracuse point guard Michael Carter-Williams. A 6’6, 185-pound point guard with a lightning-quick first step, his size and speed changed the game on both sides of the ball. The big knock on him this season has been his poor outside shot. Against the Hoosiers, he showed how dominant he can be when he’s knocking down three-pointers.

Carter-Williams was a terrible match-up for a team starting two guards listed generously at 6’0, 182 pounds (Jordan Hulls) and 6’0, 178 pounds (Yogi Ferrell). Hulls and Ferrell really couldn’t pressure a player so much bigger and more athletic than them. As a result, Carter-Williams had only one turnover, a stark contrast to the ten committed by teammates Brandon Triche and C.J. Fair. When he had the ball in his hands, Syracuse couldn’t be sped up. By the time Tom Crean finally relented and put NBA wing prospect Victor Oladipo on him, the Orange had gotten out to a 29-11 lead and the game was essentially over.

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The No. 1 Hoosiers fell short of their expectations, but Oladipo took full advantage of the road in front of him. He had a very strong tournament, and while he did end up on the losing end earlier than expected, he still put up a fight. Oladipo finished the game with 16 points on 5-for-6 shooting, making the single three-point field goal he attempted. He also made 5-of-8 free throws.

Oladipo had the tough job of slowing down Carter-Williams, which is no easy task. Oladipo, the Big 10’s Defensive Player of the Year, did what he could to slow down the point guard who seemingly glides past opponents. While Carter-Williams did score 24 points, he did it on 9-of-19 shooting.

Carter-Williams size altered the game, his 6’6 180 pound frame turning into a vessel to be reckoned with as he drove to the rim. He shot 9-for-19 on the night while also grabbing five rebounds and one assist. He also had four steals to go with that. Usually known for his work as a play maker, Carter-Williams took to scoring and was effective from long-range, hitting three of his five three-point attempts.

With Carter-Williams putting up a statement game in the NCAA tournament, his draft stock will certainly be rising. With his great size, playmaking, and driving ability Carter-Williams only flaw is his perimeter shooting which he stuck a fork in against Indiana. DraftExpress has Carter-Williams ranked 15th overall in the top 100 draft prospects.

Victor Oladipo - Junior - Indiana: Oladipo is a defensive-minded player, but he has also provided a solid scoring punch for Indiana in the tournament. The Big 10’s Defensive Player of the Year worked hard to shut down Temple guard Kalif Wyatt down the stretch to help the Hoosiers advance to the Sweet 16, and he also led the team with 16 points on 7-12 shooting to go with eight rebounds in the victory over Temple. The 6’5, 214 pound guard will need to use his elite athleticism and superb length to slow down Syracuse guard Michael Carter-Williams on Thursday night. Oladipo currently ranks No. 6 on the Top-100 prospect list at Draft Express.

Michael Carter-Williams - Sophomore - Syracuse: The rangy 6’6 point guard ranks No. 15 on the Top-100 list at Draft Express, but if he gets matched up against Oladipo and has a strong showing, he could rocket up draft boards. Carter-Williams was merely average in the team’s second-round win over California, so he needs to step his game up if Syracuse wants to pull an upset. The All-Big East second-team guard doesn’t usually score a lot (11.8 PPG), but he is an excellent distributor (7.6 APG) and it will be interesting to see if he can get past Oladipo to stretch the Indiana defense and create opportunities for teammates on Thursday night.

For the vast majority of the players in the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16, the games this weekend are as good as it gets, the 40-minute culmination of a journey that began when they were in middle school. But for a select few with the ability to play at the next level, the stakes are even higher.

Ideally, NBA teams wouldn’t let the outcome of a one-and-done tournament overshadow an entire season’s worth of work, but a strong performance in March can do wonders for a player’s draft stock. Conversely, a poor showing against elite competition can plant the seeds of doubt in the minds of NBA decision-makers.

Muhammad, the consensus No. 1 player in the high school Class of 2012, was supposed to have a freshman year similar to Anthony Davis last season. Instead, his one season at Westwood was strikingly similar to O.J. Mayo’s only season at cross-town rival USC. Like Muhammad, Mayo made his name playing against younger players on the AAU circuit but couldn’t translate that dominance when matched up against his true peers in college. While they were both productive as freshmen, neither looked like the future All-Star their recruiting rankings suggested they would be. As a result, they earned somewhat unfair reputations as malcontents, victims of a culture that views high school rankings as the ultimate goal rather than a small step on a much longer journey.

On the surface, Muhammad being 20 rather than 19 doesn’t seem like that big a deal. However, in youth sports, an extra year can create a huge edge in both physical and emotional maturity. That’s why, as Malcolm Gladwell pointed out in his book “Outliers,” most great Canadian hockey players are born early in the year, just after the Jan. 1 cut-off date for determining their eligibility in youth leagues. Players born in January have an 11-month advantage over players born in December, which translates into an edge in size, speed and confidence that can be insurmountable. For Muhammad, being held a year back meant he was in the Class of 2012 rather than 2011, even though he’s as old as many players in the Class of 2010.

Plumlee is currently viewed as a borderline lottery pick, as the No. 12 draft prospect according to DraftExpress. His play so far in the tournament has likely solidified that rating, perhaps even improving it. He was dominant in the second round against Albany, putting up 23 points and eight rebounds on 9-of-11 shooting. And while Albany isn’t exactly the greatest competition, Plumlee simply did what he had to do against an inferior opponent.

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McLemore was only able to notch two free throws in the victory, going 0-of-9 from the field and 0-of-6 from three-point land in 24 ineffective minutes. He did have five rebounds, but he had just two assists and turned it over twice. Certainly not the type of effort expected from a guy possibly tabbed to be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft.

It’s the third straight sub-par performance for McLemore dating back to the Big 12 Championship Game against Kansas State. In a 70-54 victory, McLemore had just five points and three assists on 2-of-7 shooting. He then followed that up with a better but still so-so performance in the second round of the NCAA Tournament against Western Kentucky. In that game, McLemore did manage 11 points and six rebounds, but he shot just 2-of-5 and turned it over four times. It was a positive that he got to the line eight times, but still an underwhelming performance for such a talent.

Overall, Oladipo scored 16 points on 7-of-12 shooting while making one of his three three-point field goal attempts. While his assignment, Wyatt, did score 31 points it was on 24 field goal attempts. A strong outing that highilghted Oladipo’s offensive soundness and defensive prowess.

While the Hoosiers struggled against the Owls, the victories are remembered, as are the big shots. Oladipo had a memorable close to a game that pushed Indiana to the Sweet 16. Oladipo has developed his game while he stayed at Indiana into his Junior year and added value to his draft stock with a big game in a clutch situation that followed a blowout victory in their first win in the tournament. Oladipo, currently ranked sixth overall by DraftExpress, will have a hard time raising his ranking but hasn’t seen his stock drop which is half the battle for prospects.

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The sophomore point guard showed off his immense talent, but he struggled in certain aspects. He was able to get to the lane and shot 4-8 from the field, but was just 4-9 from the free-throw line. Carter-Williams also turned the ball over five times while only dishing out two assists.

Carter-Williams is one of the more unique prospects expected to declare for the NBA Draft, as he is a 6’6 point guard. The sophomore is one of the best distributors in college basketball, as he has excellent floor vision and passing skills. He is also a great slasher and finishes well at the rim.

Olynyk struggled with the physicality of Wichita State, but still found a way to impact the game. The center finished 8 of 20 from the field, but scored 26 points. He also grabbed eight rebounds, including six on the offensive end. He also shot 10-14 from the charity stripe, contributing despite his struggles from the field.

Olynyk is considered one of the more offensively skilled big men in the NBA draft. The seven-footer used a redshirt seasons to improve his strength and his low-post game, allowing him to become a more versatile scorer. Olynyk is also a skilled shooter, as he can catch-and-shoot off screens and can shoot three three-point shot as the trailer on a break.