Bowl Projections: BCS National Championship Game Should Be Oregon Vs. Auburn

So, earlier, when we mentioned that Nebraska could be heading to the Insight Bowl to play Iowa, we neglected to mention the possibility that no one on Earth knows which slots on the bowl schedule the Big 12’s big names will fill.

Nebraska to the Insight Bowl is still a possibility. But Missouri to the Insight Bowl is also a possibility, and one that would set up a Nebraska-Arizona matchup in the Holiday Bowl that would be a rematch of the 2009 edition of that game. And then there’s the chance that Oklahoma State could go to the Insight Bowl.

There is keen-eyed, and there is the visual acuity The UConn Blog to note that Oklahoma’s schedule had UConn as its next opponent in the Fiesta Bowl earlier this morning. (I know, it’s more about Internet sleuthing than anything, but go with me.)

That matchup isn’t what we were projecting earlier — we’re banking on Connecticut to the Orange Bowl, and Stanford to the Fiesta — but it’s possible, if the Orange Bowl elects to bring the Cardinal to Miami.

Could this year’s Insight Bowl be a preview of things to come in future Big Ten seasons?

The Insight Bowl typically matches a mid-tier Big 12 team against a mid-tier Big Ten team. This year, that might mean Nebraska — fourth in line in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State — hooks up with Iowa — a distant fourth at best after Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State — get to duel in the desert.

The best of the rest of the Big Ten and SEC could meet up the Capital One Bowl this January.

11-1 Michigan State and defending national champion Alabama are currently projected to meet up in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando on New Year’s Day, producing a matchup of two of the nation’s more balanced offenses.

With the Orange Bowl likely to take Connecticut, the Fiesta Bowl seems more or less set as well.

That’s because the last of the BCS bowl games to pick its lineup this year would have two automatically qualified teams set to clash in Glendale: Oklahoma and Stanford.

The Orange Bowl is faced with a tough choice: select the supposed patsy that might put fans in the stands, or pick the titan that might struggle to sell its ticket allotment?

If you haven’t guessed, the patsy is Big East champion Connecticut, possibly the worst BCS team ever, and the titan is one-loss Pac-10 runner-up and virtually guaranteed BCS automatic qualifier Stanford. And the Orange Bowl must take one or the other if the Sugar Bowl, as expected, grabs Ohio State as its at-large selection.

The Rose Bowl is easy to predict. Everything after the Rose Bowl is the hard part.

For example, while the Sugar Bowl should be Ohio State and Arkansas, it could actually feature Michigan State, or Missouri.

With the BCS National Championship Game all but set in stone as an Oregon-Auburn matchup at this point, the Rose Bowl becomes the easiest BCS bowl to predict.

That’s because with Pac-10 champion Oregon set to go to Glendale for a national title, the Rose Bowl is contractually obligated to welcome Wisconsin and TCU to Pasadena.

With Week 13’s loss to Arkansas, LSU has dropped from the top five to BCS No. 10. That’s still high enough for a New Year’s Day bowl bid, but the Tigers have obliterated any hope of a shot at the Sugar. Popular wisdom at the moment (again, this is assuming Auburn doesn’t collapse this weekend in the SEC Championship Game) projects Les Miles & Co. to take their game to either the Capital One Bowl versus Michigan State or the Cotton Bowl versus Texas A&M.

Either way, it’ll be a sunny January for the Tigers. And although both potential opponents are considerably lower-ranked, don’t count out either squad. The Aggies played common opponent Arkansas slightly closer than did the Tigers, and the Spartans are going to be fighting mad at ending up at the bottom of the one-loss Big Ten scrum.

Follow along with our 2010 bowl projections all week long in this StoryStream.

With all three one-loss Big Ten teams winning in Week 13, the Wisconsin-Ohio State-Michigan State scrum remains intact. And with all three teams retaining their respective order in the BCS standings, the Spartans are set to receive the lowest-tier bowl invite. Wisconsin is projected to snag a Rose Bowl berth, and Ohio State is a likely at-large selection for the Sugar Bowl, leaving Michigan State free to spend New Year’s Day in Orlando for the Capital One Bowl.

The Spartans’ probable opponent, barring a shakeup in the SEC Championship Game that would throw that conference picture into disarray, will be LSU or Alabama. Either way, MSU will face a tough test getting past a stingy defense. (Personally, I’m pulling for the Crimson Tide to get the nod, just to see Mark Dantonio and Nick Saban face off in a halftime contest to see who can melt a chunk of granite with his steely death-stare the fastest.

Follow along with our 2010 bowl projections all week long in this StoryStream.

With the Week 14 BCS rankings hot off the 21st-century equivalent of the presses on the Internet, it is now possible to do bowl projections for the BCS bowls with a fair amount of certainty. Let’s run them down.

This is more or less as it has always been projected: the last two undefeated teams in BCS automatic qualifier conferences are the top two teams in the BCS standings, and should meet for the national title in Glendale. Oregon, sadly, would be the road team, which limits the number of possible jersey combinations the Ducks could trot out to the low dozens.

For Ohio State, this bowl season will likely bring a unfamiliar foe and a familiar locale.

The Buckeyes are likely to lose out on a Big Ten Championship, thanks to a BCS tiebreaker that should reward Wisconsin. But the Buckeyes have a lofty ranking, solid units on offense and defense, and a fan base that will always make Ohio State an attractive BCS at-large selection.

Stanford’s chances of a BCS bowl berth are slightly better than they were this time last week.

That’s because the Cardinal took care of business against Oregon State after watching two teams ahead of them fall over the weekend, and those losses by Boise State and LSU may be enough to get Stanford up to fourth in tonight’s BCS rankings. That spot is crucial, because without it, the Cardinal won’t earn an automatic BCS bowl berth — and might not go to a BCS bowl.

Wisconsin is probably headed to Pasadena.

The Badgers, white-hot to finish the season, have likely done enough to stay ahead of Ohio State in the BCS rankings, win the Big Ten (thanks to the BCS standings tiebreaker that will separate Wisconsin and Big Ten co-champions Ohio State and Michigan State), and earn the automatic Rose Bowl berth that comes with winning the Big Ten.

TCU played a tough schedule and finished strong, and for that, the Horned Frogs will be richly rewarded with a BCS bowl berth.

The only thing that remains to be seen is whether that bowl will be the Rose Bowl in Pasadena or the BCS National Championship Game in Glendale.

It’s easy to call Wisconsin the Big Ten’s best team right now, especially since the Badgers just got done thumping Northwestern 70-23.

But it’s slightly harder to understand why Wisconsin is the likely Big Ten champion and Rose Bowl-bound.

It’s been assumed that if Auburn made it to the BCS National Championship Game, an SEC team would slide into the Sugar Bowl as an at-large selection. Now, we have our first confirmation of that from a Sugar Bowl official.

The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette’s Matt Jones tweets as much:

Boise State’s dramatic, heart-breaking loss to Nevada on Friday night was the death blow to the Broncos’ BCS hopes.

Entering that game, the Broncos had a chance to earn the automatic berth for the highest-rated team from a non-BCS automatic qualifier conference and a slimmer chance to earn a BCS at-large berth as a highly-rated unbeaten team; now, with a loss, both of those hopes have evaporated.

Auburn’s historic comeback against Alabama in yesterday’s Iron Bowl gives the Tigers the inside track to the BCS National Championship Game. But Auburn’s bowl projections still might not include a BCS bowl.

Auburn has just one game remaining, against South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game, and the Tigers will assuredly advance to the BCS National Championship Game with a win. (They will also earn the SEC’s automatic BCS berth, which might pave LSU’s path to the Sugar Bowl.) But should the Tigers lose in Atlanta, it becomes a bit harder to predict which bowl they will end up in.

After another second half explosion and another win, Oregon has a Rose Bowl berth locked up. And now, as the only team so far to earn a BCS bowl berth, the Ducks can focus on making it to the BCS National Championship Game.

Oregon’s 34-point second half against Arizona didn’t just secure a 48-27 win: it gave the Ducks the Pac-10 title. (Even if Oregon should fall to Oregon State next week, the school beat Stanford and would win based on a head-to-head tiebreaker.) That Pac-10 title comes with no less than a Rose Bowl berth, which would be the second straight trip to Pasadena for the Ducks.