Two teams that know something about playing winning football in December clash in a critical AFC matchup when the New England Patriots meet the San Diego Chargers on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots (39-5) and Chargers (35-10) rank 1-2 in win percentage during the month of December over the last 10 seasons, and both teams appear primed to continue that success down the stretch this year.
‘Sunday Night Football,’ Patriots vs. Chargers 2014: New England looks for bounce-back win in San Diego
The Patriots and Chargers face off under the lights at Qualcomm Stadium in a key AFC battle between two of the league’s hottest teams.
Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
San Diego is coming off a potentially season-saving win last Sunday, rallying to beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road. The 34-33 victory improved the Chargers to 8-4, and gave them some breathing room in a jam-packed AFC postseason field that also has six 7-5 teams jockeying for playoff position. The win was a massive boost to the Chargers' playoff odds, which went up 22.6 percentage points, according to Football Outsiders, the most of any team last week.
However, the Chargers' path to the playoffs won't be an easy one. They face the NFL's hardest remaining schedule in the final month, and likely won't be favored in any of their matchups with the Patriots, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers.
The Patriots are still in control of the AFC's top seed despite their tough loss on Sunday to the Green Bay Packers, owning critical head-to-head tiebreakers over other division leaders (Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, Broncos). Yet they have little margin for error if they want to secure home field advantage in the playoffs. The top of the AFC standings are so tight that any of the other division leaders are capable of running the table the rest of the season and overtaking New England for the No. 1 spot.
Digits
The deciding factor in this battle between two of the AFC’s hottest teams could be the ability of the Chargers to control the tempo of the game. San Diego prefers a slower pace, averaging a play every 29.6 seconds (30th in NFL), and their clock-milking offense is perhaps the ideal strategy to upset the Patriots. If the Chargers can execute their gameplan to perfection and keep the high-powered Patriots offense off the field, they should have a decent chance to win tonight.
The key to the Chargers' ball-control offense is their ability to move the chains. San Diego ranks third in the NFL in third down conversion percentage (47.5 percent) and averages a whopping 7.6 yards per play on third down (second in NFL). Much of its success is due to the strong play under center by quarterback Philip Rivers, who ranks sixth in passer rating (112.6) and second in yards per attempt (9.7) on third down. New England has struggled much of the season to get its defense off the field, ranking 22nd in the NFL in opponent third-down conversion rate (42.9%).
After losing to the Packers and Aaron Rodgers last Sunday, Tom Brady gets another chance to face off against an elite quarterback -- one who he has thoroughly dominated in their previous head-to-head matchups. Brady is 5-0 against a Philip Rivers-led Chargers team, including two wins in the playoffs in 2006 and 2007. The Patriots have scored at least 20 points in each of those games, winning by an average of nearly 10 points per game.
Who to watch
Antonio Gates - The Chargers veteran receiver hasn't slowed down at the age of 34, ranking in the top 10 among tight ends in both receptions and receiving yards. If San Diego gets him more involved in the offense on Sunday, he could be the X-factor against the Patriots, who have struggled to contain tight ends all season. New England has allowed a league-high 70.9 yards per game on passes to tight ends, and only the Chicago Bears have given up more receptions per game (8.2) than the Patriots this season.
Darrelle Revis - The eight-year cornerback has once again made "Revis Island" a lonely place for wide receivers in 2014. Although he has just two interceptions this season, Revis is arguably one of the top shutdown defensive backs in the league. He is the second-ranked cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus' ratings, and has allowed a catch every 14.7 snaps as the primary man in coverage, the third-best rate in the league. He'll likely be matched up with San Diego's top receiver, Keenan Allen, who has 225 receiving yards and three touchdowns in his last two games.
The Venue
Built in 1967, Qualcomm Stadium is the second-oldest venue in the league behind only Lambeau Field. Since then, it has undergone two major renovations, one in 1984 and in 1997, bringing the total seating capacity to 71,500. The stadium, originally named Jack Murphy Stadium (“The Murph”), is notable for the ring of honor and banners of all 32 NFL teams that encircle the stadium. Qualcomm has also hosted three Super Bowls -- XXII, XXXII and XXXVII.
How to watch
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego
When: 8:25 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth
Online streaming: Verizon NFL Mobile | NBC Sports
Odds
The Patriots are 3-point favorites on the road over the Chargers, with an over/under of 51, per OddsShark.
Preliminary judgment
Most of the experts are going with the Patriots to bounce back with a key road win at San Diego. Seven of the eight on SB Nation’s panel are picking New England; only two of the nine guys at CBS Sports have the home team; and the majority of ESPN’s experts think the Patriots are the better team.
Further Reading
For more on the Patriots, check out Pats Pulpit.
To keep up on the Chargers, head over to Bolts From The Blue.
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