Picking a champion under a playoff format equal parts unpredictable and chaotic is a challenge, as a reasonable case could be constructed for nearly a dozen drivers. Who, for one, would have thought Jimmie Johnson, he of the six Cup titles, would fail to advanced past the second Chase round once, or Joey Logano would sweep Round 2 last year only to get bounced in the subsequent bracket? And yet, that's the volatile nature of the Chase, where consistency means little and one bad race can spell championship doom.
So while pinpointing one driver to classify as a favorite is a futile exercise, we do know in all probability the championship will emerge from among this group of drivers: Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Logano and Brad Keselowski. Who will be holding the trophy after 36 races? Pick a name out of a hat and go with that.
Although a prime candidate to regress, Martin Truex Jr. deserves the benefit of the doubt to again qualify for the playoffs after nearly winning the 2015 championship. And while Ryan Newman may be immersed in a two-year winless streak, he's shown a knack for earning his way into the Chase through points. Also include Kasey Kahne and Kyle Larson, who should each rebound from dreadful seasons and reach Victory Lane at least once.
For the two remaining spots, A.J. Allmendinger is too good on the road courses to think he won't score a win at either Sonoma or Watkins Glen, while Austin Dillon is this year's token surprise Chaser.
An exceptional rookie season seemingly poised Larson for even bigger things in 2015 and put him in position to become NASCAR's next superstar. Instead what ensued was not a breakout, but another example of the "sophomore slump" often affecting second-year drivers as evidenced by a drop in top-five and top-10 finishes and an average finish five spots worse.
There are still reasons, however, to believe in Larson and think he's still capable of evolving into an upper-echelon driver. Despite the struggles last season, he led 62 more laps than the year prior and, were it not for inopportune luck, would have earned a couple of wins.
To fulfill his promise, Larson needs to better position himself near the front at the end of races and develop greater patience. There is every reason to think the 23-year-old will do just that and enjoy a breakout season, one that includes multiple victories.
With a win and a berth in the four-driver championship finale, Truex enjoyed a tremendous 2015 season. Accomplishments made all the more remarkable considering Furniture Row Racing is a modest, single-car team.
That, however, also raises the bar on what to expect out of Truex and company going forward. And those results could be hard to replicate not only due to natural regression -- Truex had never finished ranked better than 11th in points in the nine previous years -- but also due to a manufacturer switch from Chevrolet to Toyota, which brings with it a new technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing.
Truex should win again and with it, return to the Chase. But to make another title run a lot would have to go right, and that is unlikely.